When you hear a climate prediction designed to scare the hell out of you, it is from a scenario of fossil fuel use called RCP 8.5. Don't ask what the initials stand for.

At any rate, The powers-that-be who cook up the scenarios like RCP 8.5 have officially admitted that RCP 8.5 is implausible, meaning it bears no relation to reality. This is what is called by reporters 'business as usual'. If you pick out the most plausible of the new scenarios, there is no catastrophic global warming. It was all a scam.

This is big news or should be. I note that Al Gore is now predicting global cooling. The scam continues.

I'm writing a book on energy, and looked into the insane climate scenarios. They posit use of vast quantities of oil, gas and coal.

The vast quantities come from something called 'learning by extraction' or LBE. In this scenario, you treat resources, not reserves, and assume extraction technology improves by 1% per year. Eventually all of the resources are used up. Reserves are meaningless. Costs are deflated by 1% every year. Naturally, energy is bountiful until the end of time, especially coal, which has enormous resources. Most of them cannot be mined economically, but who cares? LBE will take care of it.

This is a real thing, at least to bankers, and all of the climate scenarios, which posit, for example, that New York will be underwater by 2010, are based on LBE. Hint: it's 2026 and New York is STILL not underwater. This is where your myth of plenty…

The Exxon Petroleum Institute (API), the tight oil sector's other lobby groups and the mainstream oil "journalism" sector all like to remind us that more tight oil production is good for the American consumer and lowers the price of gasoline at the pump.

Let's take a gander at that for a second:

From 2008 to 2015 the U.S. tight oil phenomena added about 4.5 MM BOPD to U.S. production totals; most of that LTO was absorbed by Gulf Coast refineries and stayed in America. During that period gasoline prices were pretty high, a little south of $4 per gallon.

By late 2014 too much U.S tight oil production finally flooded a balanced world oil market and drove the price of oil down from the mid $90's to the high $30's. OPEC got the blame for that price collapse but that was a lie. It was reducing its oil production thru…

So, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Oil supplies are choked off to both friend (Europe) and foe (China). Now, the ceasefire is failing.

What I have noticed with that with this extra push, Europe might be on the brink of a civil war. Their societies are very divided along liberal-elite/conservative-populist similar to the US. Their economies are much more fragile than they appear to be. UK, for example, is running out of jet fuel. Australia is running out of diesel.

The cause of them running out of fuel is global warming hysteria. UK has oil fields in the North Sea to drill, but won't. Australia farmed out its refineries to Asia, so it has oil but no way to refine it. The climate policies are starting to bite. Netherlands shut down the largest gas field in Europe. No one dares speak the F-word, fracking.

I certainly hope that Europe…