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United States Hydrocarbon Policies Are Off the Rails

Policy Stuff

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Global warming is officially a scam

When you hear a climate prediction designed to scare the hell out of you, it is from a scenario of fossil fuel use called RCP 8.5. Don't ask what the initials stand for.


At any rate, The powers-that-be who cook up the scenarios like RCP 8.5 have officially admitted that RCP 8.5 is implausible, meaning it bears no relation to reality. This is what is called by reporters 'business as usual'. If you pick out the most plausible of the new scenarios, there is no catastrophic global warming. It was all a scam.


This is big news or should be. I note that Al Gore is now predicting global cooling. The scam continues.

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Richard Kleeman
Richard Kleeman
2 days ago

When ever I hear anyone talk about climate change with actually saying they mean warming you know they are full of it. The world is neither warming nor cooling but having weather between acceptable limits. There is no AVERAGE weather or hotter temperatures. I have seen far more weather than most people having flown aircraft for 54 years from 1965 up until 2019 when I gave flying away at 75 years of age. I flew as an airline Captain all over Australia and New Guinea, have visited the USA and Canada and the UK and Europe six times, been down to Antarctica and seen storms not seen today.

Why, because it is not hot enough for the development of such storms. In the 1970s it was common to encounter long lines of storms with tops around 70,000 feet something we have not seen for 40 years. In fact I don't think many countries ever get storms that high, sometimes in the US mid west they may reach that but I don't know.

This guy Tad Patzek might be great at many disciplines but he would not have first hand experience of weather at all altitudes over long periods of time. and his opinons in the interview ARE WRONG.

In Australia taking four different cities across the country the highest temperature recorded in Brisbane was 1940, Cairns 1923, Darwin 1892, Alice Springs 1891 and a place called Cape Leeuwin in the SW tip of Western Australia 1933. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE around the globe is bullshit as to even compare temperatures you must adjust for area pressure, wind direction and speed, the surface the wind has travelled over, humidity and the height above sea level of the measuring station. NONE of this ever done.

The world is not getting more CAT 5 hurricanes or cyclones or extreme thunderstorms. In January 1985 we had a line of thunderstorms hit Brisbane with radar tops at 76,000 feet which blew all the windows out of the control tower and Brisbane was short of glass for two years. I have seen lines of storms 1300 klms long back the 1970s not now, not hotter enough.

These days weather bureaus are full of academics who sit in front of computers and know bugger all about the weather as seen by their forecasts. The huge nonsense about CO2 shows most people don't know much about physics as CO2 CANNOT heat the surrounding air. It can only absorb infra red photons in about three low micron ranges that the vibrational bands will allow, the 15 micron frequency being the major one.

Only ONE infra red photon can be absorbed by about 158 million molecules of CO2 to then re heat surrounding air and molecular collisions occur a billion times more often than infra red photons are emitted. This information and data has been determined by physicists working with CO2 especially lasers. I won't say anymore as I don't wish to take Mike's site off topic but I can't stand bullshit especially when for 54 years I know what the real weather told me, often to a frightening degree, not the world of arm chair experts.

You will not believe how the climate scenarios are determined

I'm writing a book on energy, and looked into the insane climate scenarios. They posit use of vast quantities of oil, gas and coal.


The vast quantities come from something called 'learning by extraction' or LBE. In this scenario, you treat resources, not reserves, and assume extraction technology improves by 1% per year. Eventually all of the resources are used up. Reserves are meaningless. Costs are deflated by 1% every year. Naturally, energy is bountiful until the end of time, especially coal, which has enormous resources. Most of them cannot be mined economically, but who cares? LBE will take care of it.


This is a real thing, at least to bankers, and all of the climate scenarios, which posit, for example, that New York will be underwater by 2010, are based on LBE. Hint: it's 2026 and New York is STILL not underwater. This is where your myth of plenty…

321 Views
Robert
Robert
5 days ago

Huh, I never did look into how the IPCC predicts future fossil fuel use / emissions. Neat! Well, there's a silver lining for the climate at least. Between declining economically viable hydrocarbons and the upcoming population crash in developed nations, perhaps the oceans won't acidify too much before our emissions reduce by an order of magnitude. Hopefully civilization won't need as many hydrocarbons in the future 😅

Editado

U.S. Crude Oil Exports & Gasoline Prices

The Exxon Petroleum Institute (API), the tight oil sector's other lobby groups and the mainstream oil "journalism" sector all like to remind us that more tight oil production is good for the American consumer and lowers the price of gasoline at the pump.


Let's take a gander at that for a second:


Click to enlarge. This chart seems to imply that since 2021, 4.4 MM BOPD of Permian tight oil exports to foreign countries has lowered the price of gasoline to American consumers by < 20 cents per gallon.
Click to enlarge. This chart seems to imply that since 2021, 4.4 MM BOPD of Permian tight oil exports to foreign countries has lowered the price of gasoline to American consumers by < 20 cents per gallon.

From 2008 to 2015 the U.S. tight oil phenomena added about 4.5 MM BOPD to U.S. production totals; most of that LTO was absorbed by Gulf Coast refineries and stayed in America. During that period gasoline prices were pretty high, a little south of $4 per gallon.


By late 2014 too much U.S tight oil production finally flooded a balanced world oil market and drove the price of oil down from the mid $90's to the high $30's. OPEC got the blame for that price collapse but that was a lie. It was reducing its oil production thru…


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Iran war

So, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Oil supplies are choked off to both friend (Europe) and foe (China). Now, the ceasefire is failing.


What I have noticed with that with this extra push, Europe might be on the brink of a civil war. Their societies are very divided along liberal-elite/conservative-populist similar to the US. Their economies are much more fragile than they appear to be. UK, for example, is running out of jet fuel. Australia is running out of diesel.


The cause of them running out of fuel is global warming hysteria. UK has oil fields in the North Sea to drill, but won't. Australia farmed out its refineries to Asia, so it has oil but no way to refine it. The climate policies are starting to bite. Netherlands shut down the largest gas field in Europe. No one dares speak the F-word, fracking.


I certainly hope that Europe…

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Australia and the North Sea are in serious depletion. That's why there isn't major drilling. Netherlands were having major earthquake from the subsidence in the gas field. It's not a matter of just fracking. Geology isn't homogeneous in the oilfields at all. What works in the permian doesn't work everywhere. Just a fact of oil exploration, fields decline from the very first well.

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