Most new oil production coming online is either offshore or shale. This post about Johan Sverdrup is worth a closer look.

https://x.com/PepsiGro/status/2107743827247124977?s=20

I saw two videos today from creators who did not know much. Both claimed that America's energy problems were solved permanently. One was a new advert for Exxon's coke proppant, which increases the recoverable reserves of a well by 20%. Except it said 'up to 20%' which is not the same as averaging 20% increase. Exxon had drilled 100 wells and shown an improvement of 7-20%. The creator announced that only 10% of the OOIP is recovered, so this will recover, at best 12%. Then he said that Exxon planned on doubling its Permian output to 2.5 million b/d, which to me means they are going to drill twice as many wells before the pressure is completely depleted, but the announcer seemed to think the coke would do that all by itself. Exxon is still advertising this stuff as a miracle cure for aging wells. Are they trying to sell…

Hart Publications announces today the addition of 18 BCFGPD takeaway capacity from the Permian Basin, all going to LNG hubs along the Gulf Coast. These 4-5 new pipelines were, are, will be built to meet rising "demand," not rising supply.

A tad presumptuous, I'd speculate, especially when one considers that gas for gas turbine generated electricity (AI data centers) in West Texas needs to be 13 BCF by 2030.

Above, from WDBC, all Permian HZ/Frac unconventional wells, all benches, associated gas and gas well gas beginning 2012 thru August 2026. Only HZ wells drilled to shallow, conventional Guadeloupian sandstones are filtered out. Average 30-year EUR determination using best fit decline curve analysis: 2.8 BCFG per well over 30 years, estimated.

Because these wells all make water, they'll be lucky to live 18 years before reaching economic limits and will be blessed to make 2.2 BCF gas, max. I've show you…

Approximately 20% of all HZ wells drilled in Lea and Eddy Counties in New Mexico are Wolfcamp D wells.

Reservoir engineers perform decline curve analysis on oil or gas wells on a 30-year basis; its standard operating procedure and required by the Securities and Exchange Commission and lenders, etc. They'll use a decline curve analysis (DCA) method with a hyperbolic fit that goes on and on and on; production even goes up before it goes down, which I have no earthly idea why. These 30-year EURs provide really big numbers to brag about and borrow money against.

https://ibinterviewquestions.com/guides/energy-investment-banking/type-curves-decline-curve-analysis

The thing is tight oil wells decline so rapidly, and so completely, they will never produce 30 years unless the price of oil and/or natural gas goes to $200 and $10. In fact, even at $80 WTI Wolfcamp D wells, for example, are pretty much done by year 18 because they hav…

There were a handful of very short lateral HZ wells drilled early on in the Permian, before 2011; most of those were little more than deviated wells using vertical stage frac techniques in, for instance, the upper Spraberry in the Midland Basin.

Most people then start their definition of the Permian Basin HZ tight oil play in 2010 and leave out conventional Guadalupian sandstones from their definition, like the San Andres, Grayburg, etc. and focus on unconventional shales and shaley carbonates, like the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, Bone Springs, etc. that require hydraulic frac'ing to produce.

From the beginning of 2010 thru August of 2026 there have been 61,443 HZ wells drilled in the Basin that have produced 16.76 G BO, 65 TCF of natural gas and 53 G BW.

For those of us concerned about such matters, the next 61,000 HZ wells drilled in the Basin, as some speculate is possible,…

There are 45,000 HZ wells in the Delaware Basin; whether they are producing, shut in, temporarily abandoned, DUCs, wells in progress or approved permits awaiting spud, they all take up space in these eight counties defining the Delaware.

These 45,000 HZ wells have tested every unconventional shale or shaley carbonate bench in the basin, see upper right. The primary, most productive benches have been hammered, often on 330-foot spacing between wells, the remaining benches are pretty far down on the list in terms of productivity. Many of these primary benches have declined in well productivity 25% in just the past 5 years...from over-drilling, well interference and pressure depletion.

The Delaware Basin already makes 14 MM BWPD and there is NO place left to put more produced water.

It absolutely blows my mind to hear a data sell company say there are over 100,000 MORE wells that can be drilled in…

It's a good thing our kids will never need any of this stuff either. Like ethane, and butane, and natural gas...and crude oil or condensate for that matter. Or water. Diesel? Phftttt. Export it! Let us take care of the debt, and the produced water, the earthquakes, plugging, etc. We got it, man!

Giddy up, America.

This is sort of a "poll" taken of oil and gas operators in this quarters Dallas Fed Survey. An index of how folks are feeling about their quarter.

It's pretty self-explanatory; in 2025 nobody was happy, because of <$60 oil, then prices jumped up, everybody got happy until costs went up for service providers and they got unhappy again. What this means in a nutshell is D&C costs are going up for tight oil wells, etc. Stuff is going to cost more.

This always happens when oil prices go up. Everybody wants in on the action.

The survey quoted multiple operators, particularly the biggest, as saying they expect to take their free cash windfall and return it to investors, not pay down debt. Which I find remarkable.

So, nothing changes much...they're blowing thru the last of their primo inventory and unless a note is maturing, screw it, kick the can…

Best NOT Underestimate What a Threat This Actually Is....

The Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico now produces a little south of 6.85 MM BPD of crude oil and condensate, fully 50% of ALL U.S. C+C production comes from this Basin. It has been the sole source of production growth in the United States, indeed the entire world, for the past five to six years.

Because of the Permian, America is the number one oil producing country on the planet and second largest oil exporter behind only Saudi Arabia. In fact, 75% of Permian Basin C+C production is exported to foreign countries including most of Europe, India, Canada, Great Britain, and most of Asia, including China (EIA).

Associated gas from tight oil and tight gas wells in the Permian is growing exponentially and set to be the number one feedstock for rising LNG exports from the U.S. and…