Prior to 2003 and the beginning of the unconventional shale gas gig, the US oil and natural gas industry was profitable, even with prices below $20 WTI; jobs were plentiful and people could make a career for themselves in the oilfield.

In 2003-2004 prices started to rise, and fall, mostly because of leveraged over-supply of unconventional resources. Along with price instability came job instability and upstream employment began dropping. Mass manufacturing of shale wells created more automation; jobs fell more. Debt had a lot to do with this.

Mighty Exxon operated for over 100 years, under different names, with NO debt whatsoever. Then shale came along and it bought XTO. It went downhill from there. Now its $40 B in long term debt.

Would you push your son, or daughter into a profession in the oil business after looking at this chart? Mr. Trump believes $40 WTI is too high.

Exxon is currently producing 1.7-1.8 MM BOePD. Can it get to 2.5 MM BOePD in the next three years?

Exxon has a long history of never making guidance and/or production targets but given its current balls to the wall growth plan it can probably make 2.5, yes.

On a BOe basis for sure. Pressure depletion has it by the ying yang and initial GORs are increasing, then growing faster. At 6 mcf to 1 BO ratios, tight oil companies love BOe. They pretty much bank on people not even noticing the 'e.'

One thing for sure... Exxon is going to make 2.5 MM BWPD by 2030; if that's in its production guidance its home free. It's at 2 MM PD now and WOR increases every year.

This I believe is fairly accurate estimate of the total amount of light, tight oil that has been exported to foreign countries since the export ban was lifted in 2015.

I've used 15 billion barrels in the past; this is more accurate.

This Bloomberg chart implies US tight oil exports plateaued in 2024. That is not the case as any Permian tight oil growth over 4.8 MM BOPD (maximum refinery absorption in the US) all gets exported and indeed, 2025 and 1H2026 exports are still growing, particularly since the start of the Iran conflict. Note: 2026 is an estimate and likely not to hold up given the depleted state of commercial inventories and the SPR.

The LTO cumulative production from HZ wells in the Permian, 2010-2014 is roughly 14.0 B BO (Coyne 2026).

We now know why POTUS says what he does about "plenty, dominance, independence," etc.

Everyone knows by now, I hope, what the definition of "technically" recoverable resources are. They are theoretical and based on resources that have not been found yet and, if they are found, might someday be partially recoverable at some unknown, much higher oil and/or gas price. They are guesses, little else.

The basis for this article is the shale oil and…

It is truly a nightmare, Conway. Thank you.

Nobody cares as long as it's not in their back yard.

What I am about to say will piss some people off. So be it.

Everyone lauds the tight oil and tight gas phenomena as the greatest thing since sliced bread. The don't care that it was born and raised on debt that will never be paid back. Shale forever changed the dynamics of the worldwide oil situation and, in my opinion, sucked all the capital out the rest of the domestic oil and gas industry in America and helped destroy it. It set back development of resources in the GOM 10 years. Tight oil in the US, in fact, reduced investment in exploration across the entire world.

In 2007 conventional dry natural gas production was rising. Look at what happened in 2008-2009 with the onslaught of unconventional shale gas. The same…

Nothing to see here, only the headline and a reminder that the mighty U.S. tight oil and gas sector at some point in the not-so-distant future has to pay all its debt back and clean up all its shit up. What you can see above ground and what you can't below ground. Dig it out of the ground and dispose of it. Legally.

If it's got Radium in it, and is subject to Federal NORM standards, which a lot of the Permian Basin has, it's going to cost billions.

Regardless of whether you own a chicken plucking company, or a tight oil company, in spite of all the dividends, investor presentations and air time on CNBC...you have NOT turned a profit, are not profitable, until you have paid your debt back and covered all plugging and decommissioning costs. That's part of doing business in America.

Or are you OK with…

I saw discussion on the SPR recently. People have thrown around a statement from Amos Hochstein, Biden's senior advisor for energy security, who speculated in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKq0ruVlewY at 7:15 that at 300, the SPR's caverns will damage, and the rate of extraction may slow. Does anyone have additional insight into the SPR?

This chart was taken from oilprice.com, who uses EIA production estimates. The EIA includes Alaska, GOM and all lower 48 C+C production. I was mistaken in assuming the production growth YOY ending June 2026 was onshore lower 48 only, therefore not all the growth shown in this chart is related to longer HZ laterals in shale oil basins. I should have known better given the level of increase in just 12 months.

Of the estimated 480,000 BOPD YOY increase estimated by the EIA to June, over half of that came from the GOM. I stand corrected.

The delta IS lower 48 tight oil and came from longer laterals AND DUCs. It did NOT come from higher rig counts. It takes six months or more from spud to reported first production into tanks. A 30 or 40K BOPD bump since February/ March could easily come from a mere 35 DUC's complete…