This new campaign for the tight oil sector is brilliant. It cannot lose with this new propaganda program, be in coke proppant (Exxon), more soap in the frac fluid (Chevron), new technological advances (everybody).

• 99.99% of Americans have no…

We need to face facts. We do not have enough nat gas to power AI. We need that gas for home heating and industrial heating. Nuclear energy is all effed up. As for renewables, they are a joke. The only way to power AI and replace nat gas power plants is with coal. If we want to re-industrialize we need to revive the coal industry. We have plenty of coal; we just need to get past the climate change hysteria and start using it.

Bloomberg recently wrote that most U.S. tight oil wells now decline 90% the first 36 months of production life.

Above is the most recent production profile I can produce for wells drilled in 2022 that are 3 years old in the Permian HZ tight oil play. They, in fact, declined 89.6% in three years. These are all wells, both sub-basins, all benches drilled in 2022. This is a Novi chart, by the way, created using realized production data from the Texas Railroad Commission.

Please note that ensuing years, 2023, 2024 and those wells drilled to July 2025 on an oil rate in BOPD vs. time are less productive than 2022 wells so it is likely that, at least in the Permian, wells now decline more than 90% the first 36 months of production life.

I think you need to seriously let that sink in a minute. Imagine investing $10MM, risking…

As is usual, the entire commentary is valuable and worth reading (download at their website). Here are a few relevant bits (the rest that follows it G&R's writing, not mine):

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The Permian Rolled Over

First, U.S. shale oil production turned negative year-on-year in October. We first forecast this outcome back in 2019, arguing that shale output would begin to roll over around 2026.

We later pulled that estimate forward to 2025—and events now suggest that call was on target. Several years ago, well before today’s AI enthusiasm, we built a deep-neural-network model to parse the drivers of shale productivity. That work proved invaluable.

The model made clear that most of the productivity gains the industry celebrated were not the result of breakthrough drilling techniques, but rather of something far more prosaic: high-grading. Companies were drilling their best remaining locations first.

And thank you for reading...

Here is a recent Rystad graphic showing type decline for Midland Basin HZ tight oil wells to 3 years. In gas depletion, oil expansion driven mudstones (shale) everything poops out eventually. It depletes, even associated gas from oil wells. See above.

I had C+C declining at the rate of 83-85% in the first 32 months of production, Rystad says 90% in three years. Try and get your head wrapped around that.

Longer laterals are hiding pressure depletion...don't be fooled by that. It cannot last much longer and when it doesn't, U.S. production will fall fast.

EUR's have fallen in the Midland Basin to 385-400K BO and 2.1-2.4 BCF gas.

Natural gas is now $5, the first time it has reached that level in 3 years. A cold winter and strong LNG demand are pushing it up. God help anyone trying to heat their home this winter without a strong bank account. I think it might go to $10. That's where Europe is.

Thad was, is a no bullshit PE that nobody could buy, sort of like Scott Lapierre. This chart is self-explanatory but briefly, the closer together they (EOG?) drilled Wolfcamp A wells in Lea County, the worse they got. Parent/child interference has only become worse since this chart was produced 7 years ago.