Thanks.

I believe the minimum operating level (MOL) for the SPR is 150 million barrels. For May the SPR stock decreased by 35.6 million barrels, currently the SPR is at 207 MMb above MOL, so at a rate of decrease of the past month we reach MOL in 6 months or December 2026. I agree using the SPR in this way is a mistake, much of it (or perhaps all of it) is being exported, also not smart policy.

Mike

Once again you nailed it. You either have to be blind or a raving nutter not to see what a boondoggle shale has been. I cannot believe how big corporations like Exxon, Chevron and Occidental have been suckered in to this which is why I don't own any stock. You could make more money betting on horses. Shale is a shark infested pool.

Dick, I agree; they probably should already be $150 given rational, supply/demand fundamentals. What troubles me, deeply now, is that a handful of people in the world, all over the world, can manipulate oil prices so easily.

You have posted about this before, and I always get a kick out of it. But my ? for today

is about a different part of the post. And probably a silly assed ? at that, Professor.

I know you pack the cotton, vaseline, and ear plugs in to protect your hearing, as in another post you mentioned the dinner you attended with David Thompson, Coots, and Red (RIP to all three) and they were basically yelling stories at each other. My question is about when that practice started, and as loud as a big blowout is, does it really help?

Anne, I am sorry, I accidently deleted your comment. My bad. You said that Exxon is warning America that inventory levels are very low and we should listen.

Here is an example of what I mean about people that can't count DUCs. The API is designed to over-inflate/exaggerate everything the industry does, to make it look better, but I will stick with the Novi and Enverus on this topic. Novi said 560 in all of the Permian and Enverus said recently 1,500 for the entire country. So I am unclear, as I mostly am, where the Exxon Petroleum Institute gets its information.

I will NEVER understand the business logic in borrowing CAPEX at 5.5% interest rates to drill $5 MM wells just to let them sit for years, generating NO revenue. Below $65 WTI, on a full cycle economic basis, wells don't make 5.5% annualized return on CAPEX. Buy $10 MM CDs at the bank and lock them in for 5 years and you make more money than a tight oil well with a 25% OWR, including NGLs.

There are many issues with using either salt (sea water) or produced water for frac fluids. Sea water has a typical level of about 3.5% total dissolved solids TDS (by weight) and produced water 10% or more. Carbonate and sulphate anions can reach their limit of solubility quite easily . Both sea water and produced water are in a chemical equilibrium with these anions. The main cations that in sea water are sodium, potassium, calcium and magnesium. Calcium and Magnesium will be at or very close to their solubility limits ( hence limestone rock and sulphate deposits on coastlines). pH, pressure and temperature changes can also cause precipitation.

High TDS water causes issues with the preparation of frac fluids which vary in composition by include cross linked gels, guar gums and polyelectrolytes which are all impaired by high TDS prep waters. Even more important is the concentration for cations in the formation water which will be at the limit of solubility for Calcium, Magnesium, Barium and Strontium.  Barium and Strontium both have very low solubility with carbonates and sulphates. Any precipitation of salts in the formation will impede the flow rate. pH control is also critical and frac fluids are typically alkaline to help reduce corrosion. 

For this reason fresh water, which is typically less than 0.08 % TDS is preferred.

I have attached a link to a paper from the ASC (American Chemistry Society) which goes into detail on this subject. It is very technical but if there are any questions I will do  my best to explain.

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acsomega.3c05145?ref=article_openPDF

For about 6 years I was heavily involved with water treatment for 0il production, refineries and petchem plants before moving  into refining and petrochemical plants technology.