Iran War MOU
The MOU is signed, and oil prices are falling like a stone. WTI is down to $75/barrel.
I confess, I do not know what the hell is going on. I guess we'll have to wait and see. In the meantime, oil is underpriced, again. IAE is predicting a ridiculous structural supply surplus of over 5 mmpd by 2o27.
Until the market sees a structural supply deficit and oil stocks going down w/o some artificial cause, like war, the prices oil operators in the US shales will be insufficient to cover costs. Shouldn't the smaller guys be bankrupt by now?
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From what I understand, the IEA tilts toward lower demand and consistently underestimates demand while overestimating supply. This holds the price down, since traders read and believe the IEA. Traders don't need to be right; they just need to be able to predict what other traders will do.
As long as a respected world organization keeps pumping out this stuff, we will see low oil prices. I guess IEA is the inaccurate energy agency, as opposed to the EIA, which is the energy inaccuracy administration.