My old acquittance, Dan Dicker, is spot on here. Better read this.

I have been deep in the bush for the past 10 days with NO news. As you might expect, I am flabbergasted this morning to find the price of oil $73 and change, down 20% since I started packing flyrods.

For the record, $73 translates to below $70 at the WH and that is BELOW all U.S. tight oil break even estimates on a true, full cycle basis, the only basis for accurate well head economics and finances.

My first course of action to find out WTF is going on was to check on the status of the conflict in Iran. I see NO indication of an agreement whatsoever from a dozen trustworthy news sources around the world. Whatever the US says about a "deal" is refuted within minutes by Iran and others.

Oil inventories in the U.S. remain at record lows. From our midstream expert, Anne Keller: Cushing, the oil center of our country, has 32 MM BO of capacity and only 7 MM BO on hand. The SPR is drained with little to nothing left that is usable. Mr. Trump is still loaning oil of the SPR for market manipulation.

Oil exports, including products, from the U.S. to foreign countries, incredibly, are still at record highs.

Rig counts have not improved significantly since March and the beginning of the Iran conflict. There is NO MORE significant volumes of U.S. tight oil coming on the world market for at least six to eight months. No other magical surplus from big deepwater sources in the GOM are coming on-line. The Venezuelan miracle is years away and an outright lie by this current administration. Argentina tight oil is a drop in the bucket.

If, and I repeat IF, there is 150 MM BO on water and set to come to market, that will have an impact on prices. Two weeks ago, this administration was bragging about how much oil on water it was sneaking thru the SOH into markets. What's the truth?

In short, there is NO reason the price of oil is this low other than lying. Factually, it should be in the low to mid $90's. Everything this administration says about the future of U.S. production increases and incentives to initiate that, like lower BLM plugging bonds and allowing methane, etc. to leak into the air is a freaking lie. All of it. No bids to speak of for ANWR or anywhere else except small tracts in the New Mexico Permian.

I do not mean to be disrespectful to my country or its president but everything I read this morning coming from Bergum, Wright, etc. I could only laugh at.

Personally, I have never in 16 different presidential administrations seen this level of deceit about oil. Washington DC is expecting you to be dumb about oil prices and believe what it tells you to believe about what's best for America.

Please don't do that. Be smart and prepared for what's coming...higher prices and hydrocarbon scarcity. That's not being anti-American, or anti-Trump, that's just being a good planner and a good, caring parent.