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"The price action in recent weeks reflects a market that is treating this temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran as a permanent deal. This is clearly not the case, and as we have seen over the last four months, the situation can change very quickly," strategists at ING said in a research note published Monday.

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"It took long enough to agree on a temporary ceasefire. Reaching a permanent deal which tackles the nuclear issue within 60 days would be very optimistic. Of course, there is always the potential for the ceasefire to be extended, which would effectively be kicking the can down the road," they added.

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In a few weeks I will be able to show you examples of pressure depletion and falling well productivity in the Delaware Basin that will startle you, promise. In the chart above, however, we see how 3-mile laterals in the Delaware are stalling out in all counties save Lea, Eddy and Loving,

all benches.

Lea and Eddy Counties have carried the day for the Permian Basin HZ play the past four years and typically have EURs in the 635K range. These are pretty good wells even at $11 MM well costs, primarily because royalty rates have been reduced on BLM leases from 3/16ths to 1/8th. 

The only caveat to better well economics is the incredible amount of water these wells make (2,000 BPD +/-) at $3-4 per incremental bbl. to

handle, pipe to Texas and dispose of. 

When Lea and Eddy County are overcooked and on the downhill slide that will pretty much be it for the Permian and for oil exports to foreign countries below costs.

Buyer beware. Europe and Asia are headed for nine-line binds.

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Robert Flaherty Energy Landscapes 

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I do this blog stuff for fun, not to make money. I am not trying to sell you anything.  

The materials provided on this site are for informational and educational purposes only and are not intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice.  I may make data related mistakes  occasionally; if you use my opinions about oil reserves or shale well economics for financial purposes, to buy or sell stocks, your nuts. Don't do that. If I have used a photograph incorrectly it was for educational purposes and I have done my best of to give credit where credit is due. My stories are all true, slightly embellished, perhaps, but true; I don't change names to protect the guilty. I am as accurate as possible about history and historical facts; I work very hard at that.All rights are reserved, whatever that means.  Don't blame me,  I didn't do it.   

                                                                                                                                                     Mike Shellman 
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Header Photograph by Robert Flaherty
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