Here is a recent Rystad graphic showing type decline for Midland Basin HZ tight oil wells to 3 years. In gas depletion, oil expansion driven mudstones (shale) everything poops out eventually. It depletes, even associated gas from oil wells. See above.

I had C+C declining at the rate of 83-85% in the first 32 months of production, Rystad says 90% in three years. Try and get your head wrapped around that.

Longer laterals are hiding pressure depletion...don't be fooled by that. It cannot last much longer and when it doesn't, U.S. production will fall fast.

EUR's have fallen in the Midland Basin to 385-400K BO and 2.1-2.4 BCF gas.

True well costs in the Midland Basin are closer to $12MM each, not $10, when land costs are added from recent mergers and acquisitions. If you ignore land costs you are not being honest with yourself. You cannot make those economics work on a full-cycle, all in Corporate level, no sir. No way.

The associated gas that makes it the Gulf Coast (Exxon and Chevron, mostly) goes to the Houston Ship Channel, 30 cents less than Henry. Most Permian associated gas goes thru WaHa.

So how can pundits look to the Permian Basin for LNG supply with these sorts of decline rates, and economics that don't ever reach well payout? Where is the money going to come from to grow associated gas production in the Permian another 9 BCFGPD when its annualized decline rate is something like 33%. Every year the Permian loses 8 BCFGPD from decline.