Have A Warm Weekend
And thank you for reading...



Here is a recent Rystad graphic showing type decline for Midland Basin HZ tight oil wells to 3 years. In gas depletion, oil expansion driven mudstones (shale) everything poops out eventually. It depletes, even associated gas from oil wells. See above.
I had C+C declining at the rate of 83-85% in the first 32 months of production, Rystad says 90% in three years. Try and get your head wrapped around that.
Longer laterals are hiding pressure depletion...don't be fooled by that. It cannot last much longer and when it doesn't, U.S. production will fall fast.
EUR's have fallen in the Midland Basin to 385-400K BO and 2.1-2.4 BCF gas.
I've been waiting for this. The price of natural gas is now $4.56/MCF, up 53% from last year. All of these LNG plants are going to drain America of gas and drive up the price. The world price is something like $10/MCF, so as long as demand stays strong overseas, that price will hold up. Maybe some of that money will trickle down into the Permian. My fear is that heating and electric bills will skyrocket.
How could they not? Between LNG exports and AI data demand the American consumer goes to the back to the bus with regard to natural gas.
i think i remember that flare pic from a long time ago, is it InterOil, Papua, New Guinea? Exxon bought them 2017.
i remember staring at that flare in awe, wishing we coulda had a test like that someday (careful what you wish for right).
I think I can answer that. I found from and EIA report that Alpine High has the following TRR: 11.5 billion barrels of oil, 35.1 billion barrels of NGL and 27 trillion cu ft of natural gas. BTW, the EUR for a well is 1.11 million barrels. I've heard you speak with some disparagement of Alpine High. EIA is a very reputable source. Is this possibly true? If they are way off here, how much are they off in other areas of the Permian?