This is some whacko stuff from the Energy Inaccuracy Administration.

This imaginary 2025 growth will have to come from an already over drilled, pressure depleted Permian Basin as all other shale oil basins in the U.S. are in decline.

So, rig counts in the Permian will have to increase, starting tomorrow (remember 6–8-month lag times) and total rigs will have to be higher than they have EVER been in the Permian. Where are they going to drill all these wells and to what benches when well productivity on every level is now falling significantly?

Last thing...before the United States can grow 500,000 BOPD next year it first has to REPLACE, 4.1 MM BOPD of tight oil production that will decline from 1H2026 to 2H2027. That is the annualized legacy decline rate for tight oil, about 38% per year and growing.

So, what the EIA is actually trying to make you believe is the U.S. (Permian Basin) will have to grow 4.6 MM BOPD between now and then, not 0.5 MM BOPD as the chart suggests.

Ain't gonna happen.