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The SPR & U.S. Energy Security


U.S. Energy Security
U.S. Energy Security


What is there to be learned from this quote about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and our nation's energy security from the Heritage Foundation press release, above?


  • Its author was born in Great Britain, is an economist, not a U.S. "energy (oil & natural gas) expert" and works for a Republican think tank.

  • Since President's Biden's disastrous draining of the SPR for political reasons, President Trump has managed to "refill" the SPR by just 18.65 MM BO the past 11 months...

    ...in spite of the average price of WTI in America being less than $63 in 2025, the lowest in three and one half (3 1/2) years...

  • President Trump's effort to "unleash" the U.S. oil and gas industry, his drill baby, drill agenda has failed miserably. The price of oil has fallen 24% since January 2025 because of increases in OPEC production, not U.S. production.

  • Drilling rig counts are at a six year low.

  • U.S. tight oil, the ONLY source of oil growth in the country the past 15 years, is deeply in debt and its financial performance in 2025 lagged behind the S&P significantly, in spite of so called, "efficiencies...

  • President Trump wants crude oil prices paid to American producers as low as possible, the unintended (or intended) consequences of that is dismantling the entire domestic oil and gas industry...

  • The Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara tight oil basins are in decline. The remaining Permian Basin, THE source for all U.S. crude oil growth... is thru growing and about to begin ITs decline. Wells are becoming gassier, less liquids productive, primary drilling locations and associated formations are becoming scarce, drilling & completion costs continue to escalate and produced water production is about to drown the entire basin.

  • The short investment cycle of tight oil is not short enough in matters of emergencies, like war. For the tight oil sector to ramp up significantly, drilling rigs would have to come out of cold stacks, skilled workers found to drill wells, frac spreads would have to be restarted, more skilled workers found; demand for steel and cement and frac source water would put stress on an already stressed industry. Finding and production costs would skyrocket. From spud to first oil in the tanks it takes 6-8 months, then another month or so to refine the product into say, jet fuel.

  • Deep water projects in the Gulf of Mexico take years to permit, design, implement and get product to market.

  • 65-70% of all Permian Basin tight oil production is exported to foreign countries; China is the biggest importer of American ethane in the world.

  • If these oil exports were suspended for 120 days, just four months, the SPR could be filled to the brim and ready to go in case of emergency.

  • America has a known proven developed producing (PDP) reserve to consumption ratio of six - seven (6-7) years. In 2026 those reserves will be downgraded because of lower oil prices.

  • American tight oil now (1Q26) has an annualized decline rate greater than the rate in which it can be replaced each year.

  • Natural gas has nothing to do with the SPR as the article implies. Its role as a fuel source in time of national emergency is nil. In 2025 the U.S. became the world's largest LNG exporter.

  • This Heritage Foundation article is poorly thought out, deceptive to the American public and dangerous. Crude oil inventories on hand, like those in a full and workable strategic petroleum reserve, play a vital role in national security.


335 Views
dckpttn
Feb 06

Economists never think there is any problem. Their slogan is "What, me worry?" Old farts will recognize the slogan from Mad Magazine. It was supposed to be satire, not an operating manual. Ever since peak oil in 2005 got obliterated in a flood of shale oil, everyone thinks oil and gas will last forever. Here comes the screw.

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