These folks are supposed to be our allies but didn't do diddly for the U.S. in Iran. I mean nada. They have not lifted a chubby little finger to open or keep open the Hormuz Strait, even though they import a significant amount of oil from the ME.

This is Permian tight oil they import, below costs, where we are running out of water and the ground trembles from produced water injection.

They quit the North Sea entirely years ago and now they are protesting the development of onshore shale gas south of London with No Fracking protests.

Yesterday the UK issued a travel warning to all U.S. citizens because of Iran and anti-American sentiment. Stay away was the just of it.

The Exxon Petroleum Institute (API), the tight oil sector's other lobby groups and the mainstream oil "journalism" sector all like to remind us that more tight oil production is good for the American consumer and lowers the price of gasoline at the pump.

Let's take a gander at that for a second:

From 2008 to 2015 the U.S. tight oil phenomena added about 4.5 MM BOPD to U.S. production totals; most of that LTO was absorbed by Gulf Coast refineries and stayed in America. During that period gasoline prices were pretty high, a little south of $4 per gallon.

By late 2014 too much U.S tight oil production finally flooded a balanced world oil market and drove the price of oil down from the mid $90's to the high $30's. OPEC got the blame for that price collapse but that was a lie. It was reducing its oil production thru…

So, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Oil supplies are choked off to both friend (Europe) and foe (China). Now, the ceasefire is failing.

What I have noticed with that with this extra push, Europe might be on the brink of a civil war. Their societies are very divided along liberal-elite/conservative-populist similar to the US. Their economies are much more fragile than they appear to be. UK, for example, is running out of jet fuel. Australia is running out of diesel.

The cause of them running out of fuel is global warming hysteria. UK has oil fields in the North Sea to drill, but won't. Australia farmed out its refineries to Asia, so it has oil but no way to refine it. The climate policies are starting to bite. Netherlands shut down the largest gas field in Europe. No one dares speak the F-word, fracking.

I certainly hope that Europe…

The US gets over 80% of its gas from shale. That gas, among other things, fuels 43% of our electricity generation. As far as I can see, everyone thinks the US has an endless supply of it.

The US is an exporter of gas, meaning that when the US has a shortage of gas from falling production, prices will zoom to world prices. A good shorthand is to divide the price of WTI by 6. That will be the new price of gas. At current prices of $102/barrel, that yields about $17/thousand cubic feet. Even back at $55/barrel, that still yields $9/thousand cubic feet.

Currently, the US price for nat gas is $3/thousand cubic feet. We would face a natural gas shock of enormous proportions. A three- to six-fold jump in gas prices is baked into the cake with every new LNG terminal we build. If we simultaneously face an…