The author of this article is a Senior Contributor for Forbes and the chief editor of Shale Magazine, both of whom cheerlead profusely for tight oil and LNG exports, non-stop.

U.S. shale oil production totals over 9.3 MM BOPD (2025), has been above 8.0 MM BOPD for the past three years.

In 2025 tight oil exports from the Permian Basin averaged 4.4 MM BOPD, in 2026 they are down to 4.1 MM BOPD (EIA etal.). U.S refineries have been absorbing 4-5 MM BOPD of LTO and turning that oil into useful products for many years. obviously. Products beneficial to the American consumer. Clearly U.S refineries can "handle" shale oil. I certainly have never said otherwise.

The Shale Boom Changed the Equation

Then the shale revolution flipped the script.

So, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Oil supplies are choked off to both friend (Europe) and foe (China). Now, the ceasefire is failing.

What I have noticed with that with this extra push, Europe might be on the brink of a civil war. Their societies are very divided along liberal-elite/conservative-populist similar to the US. Their economies are much more fragile than they appear to be. UK, for example, is running out of jet fuel. Australia is running out of diesel.

The cause of them running out of fuel is global warming hysteria. UK has oil fields in the North Sea to drill, but won't. Australia farmed out its refineries to Asia, so it has oil but no way to refine it. The climate policies are starting to bite. Netherlands shut down the largest gas field in Europe. No one dares speak the F-word, fracking.

I certainly hope that Europe…

We don't have it to spare, no. Folks will understand that better in just a few short years and then have an absolute cow because they have been deceived so long. They'll wish we had that 15 B barrels of tight oil we exported since 2016, below costs, back. Betcha.

The US gets over 80% of its gas from shale. That gas, among other things, fuels 43% of our electricity generation. As far as I can see, everyone thinks the US has an endless supply of it.

The US is an exporter of gas, meaning that when the US has a shortage of gas from falling production, prices will zoom to world prices. A good shorthand is to divide the price of WTI by 6. That will be the new price of gas. At current prices of $102/barrel, that yields about $17/thousand cubic feet. Even back at $55/barrel, that still yields $9/thousand cubic feet.

Currently, the US price for nat gas is $3/thousand cubic feet. We would face a natural gas shock of enormous proportions. A three- to six-fold jump in gas prices is baked into the cake with every new LNG terminal we build. If we simultaneously face an…