I am always looking for new data to show in the great hope that folks will not listen to the lies being told about tight oil abundance from the sector itself, its lobbyists, paid journalists, data-sell companies, really stupid green chickens with squeaky voices and, sadly, the U.S. government.

The mission for all of them is to convince you our country will never run out of affordable tight oil and, as tight oil exports now increase back to over 5 MM BOPD; it's all good because we've got plenty.*

Here is a chart from today's Novi newsletter worth looking into a little closer.

The areal extent of the Midland sub-basin is outlined on the map on the left in black; this was essentially the assessment area that the USGS said contained 140 B barrels of technically recoverable resources from tight shale in 2016. Really dumb people are still hanging all over that, including the meatheads in Washington D.C.

But after 16 years, and 26,000 plus HZ wells (colored) you can clearly see the productive limits of the tight oil play in the entirety of the Basin is much smaller. That would suggest to this old hand that the USGS estimates were incorrect.

Now look at the green core where the best tier 1 and 2 wells have been drilled within the productive limits of the play, in basically two full counties and two partial counties. There are over 16,000 HZ wells that little area producing from the Lower Spraberry, Wolfcamp A & B and some minor benches like the Jo Mill and Dean.

Essentially the difference in Tier 1 & 2 and Tier 3 & 4 wells, IMO, is that EURs are 25 -37% lower out on the flanks (red). At oil prices below $80 that is the difference in paying back D & C costs and not, in being marginally profitable and not profitable at all.

Well productivity is now falling in that Tier 1 & 2 core, big time, from pressure depletion. Longer laterals are masking over that reality; a few years from now there will be NO more room to drill longer laterals in a jam-packed Tier 1 & 2 core. The roof is going to cave in on U.S oil production when that happens.

Yesterday the DOE and Secretary of the Interior met with tight oil operators in the U.S. and pleaded with them to drill more wells in the Permian, big operators like Exxon and FANG who control 80% of the Tier 1 & 2 core in the Midland sub-basin. The folks in Washington want to drain the Permian Basin, and the rest of America, of remaining affordable shale oil as fast as possible.

*Drill more wells, they say (the day before the price of WTI fell $14 to the low $80's)... so all that new oil can be exported to foreign countries, below costs.

Its funny how they always leave out the last part.