I have no earthly idea how the EIA derives these reserve estimates; it essentially can't unless it is getting reserve estimates from operators themselves, in which case they are most likely not very reliable.

Remember, please, proved reserves includes proved, undeveloped reserves (PUD). PUD is some related to volumetric estimates in conventional reservoirs; PUD's in tight oil basins are based on proximity to producing, parent wells. PUD reserves are generally estimated from type curves and internal decline curve analysis by operators and often exaggerated. There is now clear evidence that interference between parent and offsetting child wells is negatively affecting well productivity.

Proven tight oil reserves represent 60% of total U.S. proved reserves and those proved reserves keep rising every year, which I find very hard to believe.

The U.S. consumes 21.5 MM BOPD per day, including condensates, or 7.8 G BO annually. Essentially then the United States had 5.4 years of proven reserves in inventory at the close of 2024 including a bunch of wells that need to be drilled in the future at $10MM a pop or more. If that doesn't sound like a big savings account, it's not.

Remember about proven tight oil reserves...27 G BO +/- of estimated proved reserves at the close of 2024 in April of 2026 has declined to less than 10 G BO. That is from staggering legacy decline. Wells drilled in 2025 and in 1Q2026 add proved reserves in 385K BO increments (avg. EUR across most oil basins).

So estimated proven reserves from tight oil basins made at the end of 2024 is likely a little more than one year of consumption in our country today.

The entire energy independence, oil abundance, "more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined," dominance dung heap is based on technically recoverable oil resource estimates that might be drilled in the future at high enough prices.

In the meantime, HALF of all current U.S. tight oil production is exported to foreign countries, below costs, including the costs of financing constant drilling and frac'ing to replace declining production.

If the U.S. can keep drilling marginally profitable, $10-12MM HZ wells in a few counties of the Permian Basin, one after another, tens of thousands of them, we'll be OK.

Until we're not.

The U.S has a lot of oil resources; the term "peak oil" is all about affordable oil, or what private enterprise can squeeze out of the ground and make profit. I believe myself and others have made a good argument that tight shale oil is not very affordable given its massive debt load that will now never be paid back in full.