Don't Buy This
Its also exactly what shale pundits do with DUCs. DUC's imply prudent use of CAPEX and...nimbleness. Nobody using their own money would drill a DUC and sit on it for years while deeply in debt.
Analysts have a hard time permanently planting the goal posts on DUC's. We've determined that lag time between spudding a well and first production reported by State regulatory agencies is often six to eight months. Because of the new, simu-fracing thing it can take three months, or more, between the time the long string is cemented on 1-H well and the 1-H thru 4-H wells are all frac'ed on the same pad and another 3 or 4 months to hook up, flow back stabilize and file completion reports. If these wells appear to sit idle for more than a couple of months some folks call them DUC's.
Novi data thru October of 2025 showed 820 some-odd DUC's, viable ones, not dead ones, so a 25% increase would place the DUC count in the Permian above 1,000, up a little south of 275 wells. Ovi with POB's data is fairly consistent with Novi data that showed DUCs were declining, not increasing in 2025:
From Oil & Gas Leads...
"Nimbleness for 2026
By carrying more DUCs into year-end, operators are effectively banking inventory. This approach keeps them nimble, giving flexibility to accelerate completions in 2026 if oil markets tighten — or scale back if prices remain weak."
Bottom line: The higher DUC count isn’t a sign of slowdown. It’s a strategic play: drill now, complete later, and stay agile in a volatile oil market.
For an industry that is starving for cash flow to pay dividends (the Permian tight oil sector has actually been borrowing money to pay dividends ~ Bloomberg), spending $5MM to drill a well to let it sit, revenue-less... is dumb, particularly when long term debt costs 5.5%.
If I am wrong, it won't be the first time, and by April and May we should see U.S production spike up, from DUC completions. That's cheap cash flow at $100 WTI-Midland and the shale biz will be all over that, right? As in "nimbleness."
I'm not buying this. Most campaigns have a few drills, being followed by the same frac spread. They are chasing each other from pad to pad. They frac the pad, and off to the next. It is a game of leapfrog. At most a couple days behind. Frequently the water tanks are omitted and it's big hose running to many pads all over the bloody place from a central. Way less moves. Coil crew on frac and another following after to shift sleeves ready to produce. This huge game of industrial musical chairs is a work of art, and never stops. I doubt there is 2 weeks from spud to jacks, Lower Shaunavon and Duvernay anyway. Can't see it whole lot different, but I'm not an analyist