This chart was taken from oilprice.com, who uses EIA production estimates. The EIA includes Alaska, GOM and all lower 48 C+C production. I was mistaken in assuming the production growth YOY ending June 2026 was onshore lower 48 only, therefore not all the growth shown in this chart is related to longer HZ laterals in shale oil basins. I should have known better given the level of increase in just 12 months.

Of the estimated 480,000 BOPD YOY increase estimated by the EIA to June, over half of that came from the GOM. I stand corrected.

The delta IS lower 48 tight oil and came from longer laterals AND DUCs. It did NOT come from higher rig counts. It takes six months or more from spud to reported first production into tanks. A 30 or 40K BOPD bump since February/ March could easily come from a mere 35 DUC's completed with IP90s of 1100 BOPD each. DUC's get frac'ed, flowed back, and put to tanks in short periods of time.

So, when Washington clucks about U.S production going up from "greater efficiencies" and/or drill baby, drill, its GOM tie-ins from wells drilled years ago and DUC's, also likely drilled in the past.

None of this matters, I just don't like politicians pissin' down my pants leg only to tell me it's raining.