It can't be done with any degree of accuracy; its not a one-off event in the life cycle of a tight oil well located in an over-drilled sweet spot. We can see that in the rate of well productivity decline for new wells, in accelerating terminal decline rates for older wells and increasing water to oil ratios in all wells.

Above is a Novi Cumulative Oil vs. Time chart for all 2016-July 2025 Permian wells, all benches, normalized for lateral lengths.

2023 wells at month 19 have a cumprod. that is 3% lower than the average for the data set. 2024 wells are a course to be lower, and 2025 wells even lower. Can I be any clearer on this?

Pressure depletion is significant enough now in the Midland Basin that predicting EURs is fruitless. Same with Bone Springs wells in Lea County, for instance in EOG's over-drilled, horizontally and vertically communicated mess. EOG is fleeing to the Middle East and, of all places, Ohio, for a reason.

As my astute PE friend says from the IB; 'if you are not drilling Permian tight oil wells today, you are missing the boat. Tomorrow you will have lower IP60s, that decline incrementally faster, and make....way less money.' It Trump is messing with your plan; shit happens. Welcome to the oilfield.

Novi has an AI thing that can imply EURs from cumprods. but does not say its sophisticated enough to adjust those EURS for certain areas and specific benches as it suggests it should, below:

Again, cumprods. at specific times are NOT EURs and should not be used to imply EURs, not given the current extent of pressure depletion (in the Permian, the most important tight oil basin in the world).

Gassier tight oil wells do not translate to higher associated gas cumprods. at given times, not ultimately higher recoveries. Pressure depletion is solution gas drive rock negatively affects associated gas production and above, even tight oil wells that are classified as "gas wells" because of high initial GOR. Above, 2024 and 2025 well gas productivity is falling.

If you are banking on Permian gas to LNG exports, good luck. I think you are dumb as a stump.

After 15 years in the Permian we've got a good handle on gas recovery. 2.2 to 2.5 BCF associated gas for tight oil wells and 5.0 to 5.5 BCF for gas wells in Culberson and Western Eddy (before degradation effects); its pretty safe to say those will just decline as time goes by. From, gasp...depletion.

I know its hard, you'll be alright. It was always just the oil and gas business...you should have learned about it before you became a "shale expert."