These sort of top-down resource estimates based on areal extent in square miles and acre feet of reservoir generally only have a P50, or a 50% probability, of actually coming to fruition. Remember technically recoverable means theoretically recoverable...the estimated resources have not even been discovered yet.

50% of 1.6 G BO, total recoverable resources from the Barnett/Woodford across the entire Permian Basin, would only equal 6 months of current exports of tight oil to foreign countries, from the same Basin. Six months!

50% of 28.3 TCF of natural gas, total recoverable resources from the Barnett/Woodford across the entire Permian Basin, would only equal 5 months of natural gas consumption in the United States (EIA). Five months!

If the truth be known the entire Permian Basin is likely flaring a BCF of associated gas from tight oil wells each day given the current WaHa Gas Hub postings .

Try not to get too excited about this. Remember, the USGS's estimate of these resources are as yet undiscovered and only technically (theoretically) recoverable. The Barnett is very deep in many parts of the Permian Basin, can be over pressured and expensive to get to requiring multiple strings of casing, etc. The Barnett is essentially structure related, not some continuous bed of shale like the Wolfcamp, and these structures have to be identified with 3D seismic; unless the USGS has 3D data across its study area, it's just guessing. The Woodford shale almost broke EOG's back in Oklahoma; it is the same beast in the Permian. Apache got its ass sued over 9 BCF EUR's in the Barnett and Woodford in the Alpine fiasco, most of which turned out to be 3 BCF.

Anyway, most people will be thrilled with the notion that some portion of 1.5 G BO could…

Above is a New Mexico map of Federal BLM blocks in Lea and Eddy Counties. Long before the HZ tight oil party got kicked off in New Mexico there were vertical Bone Springs and Upper Wolfcamp wells in New Mexico that were completed for modest producers and proved the existence of hydrocarbons in these formations; very short HZ (deviated) legs were drilled in the mid 1980s and the first <4,000 foot HZ lateral in 2011 in New Mexico

Landmen and deal makers were able to lease BLM tracts from the government as early as 2012 and flip (trade) those tracts to operators financially able to mass manufacture expensive tight oil wells, like EOG in Lea County. Base royalty reservations on BLM leases were 1/8th, then went to 3/16ths under the Biden administration, now are back to 1/8th thanks to Trump's BBB.

Some of the blank, unleased spots in Lea and…

Crude oil and condensate exports from the U.S. to foreign countries averaged 4.1 MM BOPD in 2025 (EIA). 98% of those exports come from the Permian Basin HZ play.

As GOR increases in the Permian, so does natural gas liquids (NGLs), now about 5.3 GPM, up from 3.2. 40% of all NGLs produced in the U.S. come from the Permian, about 3.1 MM BPD. All of THAT is exported to foreign countries (RBN, EIA).

The Permian produces roughly 25 BCFGPD, about 23% of total natural gas produced, and sold in the country. 2 BCF of that is exported to Mexico overland, and approximately 24% of total U.S. LNG exports (11.3 BCFGPD (Reuters), or 2.8 BCF, comes from the Permian. Another 2.3 BCF I'll bet the ranch is pissed off up flare stacks, awaiting more takeaway. So, about 7 BCFPD of Permian associated gas is exported or wasted.

For the record…