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Mike's Stuff

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When Oil Prices Go Up, Service Costs Go Up

Source, AFE Leaks
Source, AFE Leaks

This is sort of a "poll" taken of oil and gas operators in this quarters Dallas Fed Survey. An index of how folks are feeling about their quarter.


It's pretty self-explanatory; in 2025 nobody was happy, because of <$60 oil, then prices jumped up, everybody got happy until costs went up for service providers and they got unhappy again. What this means in a nutshell is D&C costs are going up for tight oil wells, etc. Stuff is going to cost more.


This always happens when oil prices go up. Everybody wants in on the action.


The survey quoted multiple operators, particularly the biggest, as saying they expect to take their free cash windfall and return it to investors, not pay down debt. Which I find remarkable.


So, nothing changes much...they're blowing thru the last of their primo inventory and unless a note is maturing, screw it, kick the can down the road. When those notes are due in the 2030-2032 range they'll be drilling 250K BO EUR wells in Irion County, with prices in the 70's, maybe, and looking to refinance.



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Interesting time to be alive.

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