Read this:

https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/us-shale-oil-production-raises-questions-over-energy-prices-and-market-stability/4121267600

We are approaching the time when most people will wish we had not exported 15-17 billion barrels of light, tight oil to foreign countries...below finding costs. When 12 years ago the country had made a sorted effort at building more refineries that would process LTO... instead of having to export it away. When regulators might have put their feet down (in the name of conservation) and not let the tight oil sector dictate energy policy. 8% recovery rates?!! How grossly inefficient is THAT?!!

Draining the SPR to a bunch of holes in the ground was stupid, by both Parties, wasn't it? And losing $400 B in borrowed capital, with $250 B still owed along the way was piss-poor business.

But this will fix it, right?

Approximately 20% of all HZ wells drilled in Lea and Eddy Counties in New Mexico are Wolfcamp D wells.

Reservoir engineers perform decline curve analysis on oil or gas wells on a 30-year basis; its standard operating procedure and required by the Securities and Exchange Commission and lenders, etc. They'll use a decline curve analysis (DCA) method with a hyperbolic fit that goes on and on and on; production even goes up before it goes down, which I have no earthly idea why. These 30-year EURs provide really big numbers to brag about and borrow money against.

https://ibinterviewquestions.com/guides/energy-investment-banking/type-curves-decline-curve-analysis

The thing is tight oil wells decline so rapidly, and so completely, they will never produce 30 years unless the price of oil and/or natural gas goes to $200 and $10. In fact, even at $80 WTI Wolfcamp D wells, for example, are pretty much done by year 18 because they hav…

This is sort of a "poll" taken of oil and gas operators in this quarters Dallas Fed Survey. An index of how folks are feeling about their quarter.

It's pretty self-explanatory; in 2025 nobody was happy, because of <$60 oil, then prices jumped up, everybody got happy until costs went up for service providers and they got unhappy again. What this means in a nutshell is D&C costs are going up for tight oil wells, etc. Stuff is going to cost more.

This always happens when oil prices go up. Everybody wants in on the action.

The survey quoted multiple operators, particularly the biggest, as saying they expect to take their free cash windfall and return it to investors, not pay down debt. Which I find remarkable.

So, nothing changes much...they're blowing thru the last of their primo inventory and unless a note is maturing, screw it, kick the can…

Its no secret who owns this beautiful ranch, now, along the Pecos River in northern New Mexico, south of Santa Fe. It's owned by Scott Sheffield, who recently sold his tight oil company in Saudi America, in Texas, to Exxon.

I have fished the Pecos River thru this ranch, and miles up and down stream; there are stocked rainbows in it and some big Brown trout that can get to 18 inches. But if you can get a little Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout like this handsome little fella, to take a little midge on a warm summer afternoon...you have done something big time. He is rare and picky, and very unique to New Mexico. There is some trout over on the west side of the state, in the Gila Mountains, a Gila Trout, and is equally elusive and unique.

230 miles downriver from the Forked Lightening Ranch a lot of…

One Well, One Trillion Cubic Feet of Probable EUR

This photograph was taken near Boulder, Wyoming, I suspect looking northwest toward the Bridgers. Robert Flaherty is an old San Marcos, boy, actually. I bought lots of stuff from him but did not ask his permission to use this photo, sorry, Robert.

Not too far between here and the mountains is the Green River Valley that has some wild, tough fishing in it. Sublette County, Wyoming is not for weenies. It's hard country.

The Tetons and beyond is the country that Hugh Glass got chomped in.