Approximately 20% of all HZ wells drilled in Lea and Eddy Counties in New Mexico are Wolfcamp D wells.

Reservoir engineers perform decline curve analysis on oil or gas wells on a 30-year basis; its standard operating procedure and required by the Securities and Exchange Commission and lenders, etc. They'll use a decline curve analysis (DCA) method with a hyperbolic fit that goes on and on and on; production even goes up before it goes down, which I have no earthly idea why. These 30-year EURs provide really big numbers to brag about and borrow money against.

https://ibinterviewquestions.com/guides/energy-investment-banking/type-curves-decline-curve-analysis

The thing is tight oil wells decline so rapidly, and so completely, they will never produce 30 years unless the price of oil and/or natural gas goes to $200 and $10. In fact, even at $80 WTI Wolfcamp D wells, for example, are pretty much done by year 18 because they have reached economic limits and no longer can be produced economically on a full cycle basis.

In the Wolfcamp D type curve, above, we see by year 15 1/2 (186 months) wells are historically down to 5 BOPD, 64 MCF and 95 BW. If you are EOG and have to pay $4 per incremental BW to produce a well like this, it doesn't work, even with gas and a little bit of NGLs. The first time that well goes down and needs to be worked over, it takes years to pay the workover off, and you might as well admit defeat. Lots of operators will continue to produce uneconomic wells hoping that product prices will go up but almost always it never works out and it's cheaper to plug the well.

The type curve for a Wolfcamp D well in New Mexico, at month 186, works out to a cumprod. of 397,000 BO. At month 186 its 95% to EUR. The 30-year DCA shows it dying with a plus 420,000 BO EUR.

If it makes 400,000 BO the operator of the well will lose money the entire time after month 186, even at $80.

Finally, look at the associated gas a typical Wolfcamp D well makes in Eddy and Lea Counties...about 1.93 BCF, and at month 186 it's down to 65 MCFPD and declining, like oil, and the implied terminal decline rate of 12-15% per year.

These are the wells that AI data centers are hoping will keep getting drilled, one after another, for the next 2o years. In western Eddy County the Wolfcamp D is very gassy with an initial GOR high enough for the well to be called a gas well (red). The average D well in New Mexico still struggles to make 2 BCF.