Prior to 2003 and the beginning of the unconventional shale gas gig, the US oil and natural gas industry was profitable, even with prices below $20 WTI; jobs were plentiful and people could make a career for themselves in the oilfield.

In 2003-2004 prices started to rise, and fall, mostly because of leveraged over-supply of unconventional resources. Along with price instability came job instability and upstream employment began dropping. Mass manufacturing of shale wells created more automation; jobs fell more. Debt had a lot to do with this.

Mighty Exxon operated for over 100 years, under different names, with NO debt whatsoever. Then shale came along and it bought XTO. It went downhill from there. Now its $40 B in long term debt.

Would you push your son, or daughter into a profession in the oil business after looking at this chart? Mr. Trump believes $40 WTI is too high.

This is one of many downsides to the shale phenomena. Instability. And as all this was going on the old hands with 40 years of experience got older and are gone. Now the oilfield is run by kids with <10 years of experience, with very specific job descriptions, themselves all worried about the next round of layoffs.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates only 1,200 jobs in petroleum engineering will need to be filled over the next decade, most of those replacements for old hands retiring.

Kids today don't know how to fix anything; they're good at wireline work, or HPP work, but can't take on an entire project by themselves and do multiple things at one time. Read LinkedIn, its full of companies offering advice and assistance on every aspect of drilling and completion. Old hands with field experience and the knowledge to, for instance, come off a frac job and fish a stuck BHA, or sidetrack from it, will all be gone within another 5-6 years.

We're running out of affordable oil and natural gas, water, money...and qualified people.