We need to face facts. We do not have enough nat gas to power AI. We need that gas for home heating and industrial heating. Nuclear energy is all effed up. As for renewables, they are a joke. The only way to power AI and replace nat gas power plants is with coal. If we want to re-industrialize we need to revive the coal industry. We have plenty of coal; we just need to get past the climate change hysteria and start using it.
As is usual, the entire commentary is valuable and worth reading (download at their website). Here are a few relevant bits (the rest that follows it G&R's writing, not mine):
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The Permian Rolled Over
First, U.S. shale oil production turned negative year-on-year in October. We first forecast this outcome back in 2019, arguing that shale output would begin to roll over around 2026.
We later pulled that estimate forward to 2025—and events now suggest that call was on target. Several years ago, well before today’s AI enthusiasm, we built a deep-neural-network model to parse the drivers of shale productivity. That work proved invaluable.
The model made clear that most of the productivity gains the industry celebrated were not the result of breakthrough drilling techniques, but rather of something far more prosaic: high-grading. Companies were drilling their best remaining locations first.
Thank you, Chris. They have been reading my stuff for a long time. 😎
For the record, the "message" that associated gas and related NGLs can continue to grow post-bubble point is true, but only to a point. I have proven with realized production data that growth is limited and only generates a fairly fixed range of associated gas EURs, that for tight oil wells is actually quite low and uneconomic, even at +$4 natgas prices.
My point being Permian associated gas from tight oil wells is NOT a reliable source of LNG feedstock. That is a misnomer that seems to be gaining traction and is leading to a massive overbuild in LNG infrastructure.
As depletion sets in, that gas, like the oil associated with it, is best kept in America, for Americans and American industry.
Natural gas is now $5, the first time it has reached that level in 3 years. A cold winter and strong LNG demand are pushing it up. God help anyone trying to heat their home this winter without a strong bank account. I think it might go to $10. That's where Europe is.
Under normal conditions, how is a Blowout Preventer securely fastened to the wellhead?
Does the wellhead have threads on the inside or outside, and is the BOP 'screwed' on?
Or does the BOP have bolt-holes - and is the BOP bolted on?
When there is a blowout - the attachment mechanism (threads or bolts) between the wellhead and the BOP - does it ever get damaged or ruined?
(like if the top of the wellhead is blown or cut off during the blowout)
How is the BOP securely fastened, in those instances during a blowout, where the fastening mechanism may have been impaired/removed?
Wow, that is awesome (great pictures too), thank you.
So it seems like it's industry practice, to always have the wellhead framed in a concrete box/square foundation, with - always - flange style piping on the wellhead?
If so, that makes a lot of sense. I watched some awesome documentaries of your industry colleagues (Red Adair, Boots & Coots, etc.), and outside of being amazed, I somehow thought wellheads were just simple pipes sticking out of the ground, with no fastening mechanism to them. (maybe it was that way 100 yrs ago?)
(I've since gotten up to speed with well casings, etc.)
Very enjoyable to find your website.
Thanks
When we're "spoilt for choice" for energy sources, coal gets pushed aside in favor of sources that are supposedly easier on the environment. And it loses vs cheap natural gas all the time. But, if it's really greenhouse gas we're afraid of, I can't find anyone who will give me a comparison between the short term impact of burning methane, which supposedly puts way more GHG into circulation short term, compared to burning coal, which has way more energy but also puts more CO2 into the environment but over the longer haul. Since most people seem to only focus on the next few months or maybe years, that seems relevant. Bottom line, my personal opinion is that price will decide. When, not if, nat gas prices ramp to double digits in this country again we'll see a lot of fans show up for coal. The dirty little secret of the data centers is that even the ones who talk about being "net zero" use diesel to back up their renewable power supply.