Cartoon Of the Month

I would like to call this the cartoon of the year, actually, because it is so appropriate for 2025; the bullshit about the future of tight oil and tight gas never ends. The amazing thing about this is that this cartoon was drawn by our old friend from Fort Worth, Etta Hume...in 1979.

We tries to take 'em one a time at oilystuff.com:

We have shown you that breakeven is not $45, not $63, it's more like $90 per incremental BO when you consider the long-term debt the shale industry is in and what its future liability is going to be with regard to plugging its wells and cleaning up its mess.

100 years of associated natural gas from tight oil wells, enough for more pipe, or LNG facilities, more exports? Nope. Associated gas from pressure depleted shale resources depletes too, within 7-8 years, down to nothing, after bubble point. We've shown you associated gas prices in the Permian, for everybody but Chevron and Exxon, that has to go thru WaHa are negative, again, as you get nothing for it. Its negative half the year, and barely positive the other half.

30-year EUR's out to 1,000,000 BO? Good grief. Economic limits on today's shale oil wells are 15-18 BOPD and that occurs at year 14, with wells still in 12% annualized terminal declines.

Drill baby, drill is what is driving the price of oil down to meet Trump campaign promises? Phfftttttt. OPEC is doing that. He meant drill baby, drill in the Middle East?

Drilling prices coming down? I've shown you AFEs.

Produced water not a problem? Where've you been?

Profit? Nah. Shale oil is losing its ass right now drilling $11 MM wells that only make 450K BO EUR's. It has to borrow money to pay dividends to angry investors.

Well productivity is still increasing? You are kidding, right? When normalized for lateral lengths new wells being drilled in all the major shale oil basins are worse than they have been in a decade.

Greater efficiency, the industry is doing more, with less? Sorry Chuck; maybe for 12-15 months then decline is steeper than ever; shale oil wells are 85% done by month 30.

Re-fracs? Gimme me a break. At $60?!! Gas reinjection? Yeah right.

U-Turn wells? We're working on that right now over on Forum Stuff...that's not going to "save" anything other than a few 640 acre sections with Bone Springs under them.

Is regulatory relaxation helping the shale sector drill more wells? Where on BLM/Federal land are there more shale oil wells to drill? If that is such a big deal, why are they still paying $170,000 an acre in the New Mexico Permian?

I can go on and on. We're not trying to be cynical here, we're trying to push back on the narrative. We're trying, as oil men, to tell the truth about our oil future. The government needs cheap oil prices; it will say anything to see to that. The shale industry needs your money; they'll say anything. Data sell companies never want the party to end. Neither do journalists and analysts needing work. CEO's will sell their mothers for more drillable locations; royalty owners have never seen a shale well that wasn't a money maker. The bullshit never ends.

By the time the sector gets its shit together the resource is going to be all gone. And every American, believe it or not, is going to be shocked!