https://seekingalpha.com/article/4688683-an-alarming-trend-is-developing-in-us-shale-oil-production People are not being very smart about the future of oil in the Permian Basin. In fact, they are being dumb about it. Oil is not even oil anymore and gas liquids are representing a much larger faction of the production stream (& potential revenue stream) than ever before. "And as any veteran oil analysts know, when you start seeing overall gas production outpace oil production, you know the basin is closer to the end than the beginning." Analysts suggest that Permian "oil" production can continue to grow even with a negative $12 MMBTU gas price. I don't think so. Nor do I believe more natural gas takaway from the Permian 2H24 is going to translate into a higher rig count, more completions and more "oil" (<47API) production. I think, like this article implies, rigs have yet to go back to work in the Permian because of poor economics, not financial discipline for the sake of investor dividends. If todays typical Delaware Basin well is good for 3 BCF EUR, and your losing $2 per net MCF on a $11-12MM investment, that hurts. Big time. Or maybe it's this. US crude oil exports are down. Natural gas liquids are not crude oil...maybe importers are finding out that crude quality does matter and the Permian is beginning to lose its market. The Midland Basin may have seen its best days; if we are now dependent on the Delaware as the only remaining source of tight oil growth left in the US, who exactly is that going to benefit? It never has the US, are we sure the rest of the world is going to want it? This is one of the many unspoken downsides to the US tight oil phenomena and its poor management. We spent hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars exporting the good stuff to foreign countries. Now we're left with the debt, the plugging liability, and we're covered up in associated gas that is not worth diddly squat. Some of us saw this coming years ago.

I am flattered, once again. Regrettably that is a photo of Boots Hansen, my old boss, in Kuwait, in 1991, not Adair. What the heck. I met a fella last week fishing; when I introduced myself he said, "oh yeah, your're that fella with the blog that rails on the tight oil business all the fucking time." I shook his hand and said, yep. He was a VP with a really big EF player. We actually had a drink that night and talked about the biz and in the end it was OK. He said he reads OSC quite a bit and likes the history. I asked him after round 3 if anything I wrote about the tight oil business was true and he grinned and said, "well, yeah, but thats beside the point." If I could keep my nose clean I am sure I'd have a lot more readers and get a lot more things published in the main stream; I can't hep myself. My industry needs to quit telling lies about abundance and energy independence. I hate that dumb stuff. I want to vaccate the premises some day believing my country, and its kids, will have something left, and a chance. ...pretty much every day day.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chevron-ceo-permian-d-j-170500419.html It's raining like a mama cow pissin' on a flat rock today. In boredom I read the above article, absorbed the quote below from Mike.... Wirth said Chevron is “seeing strong performance” from new wells drilled in the Permian, including both the Midland and Delaware basins.The strong Permian performance includes contributions from Chevron’s non-operated joint venture portfolio and its royalty acreage. Wirth said Chevron’s royalty acreage delivers the company’s highest-return barrels because the company isn’t spending to develop the asset.“Others are developing it,” Wirth said, “and we saw increased activity that resulted in increased royalty production.” and found this cool map below in the my files... Chevron's biggest and bestest block of acreage in the Delaware Basin is in Eddy County, New Mexico; the rest, like Culberson County, Texas, is very gassy and out on the flanks of the core. Most of that block in Eddy is BLM and New Mexico State minerals, like its 5,500 acre Javelina Unit, and subject to continuous drilling provisions. How is Chevy doing in Eddy? Almost as mediocre as Exxon, next door. Its 2023 Eddy wells were sucking with production profiles much lower than 2019-2022 and EUR's headed for the ditch, left. In fact, below, all of its Delaware Basin operated wells were underpeforming wells drilled the previous four years, all the way back to 2019. In the 4th quarter of 2023 it found itself again, drilled some longer laterals, I suspect, a number of them Bone Springs wells in its Javelina Unit, and things started to look a little better. Eddy County's initial GOR's in its three primary benches are getting higher, and GOR's are getting higher as time goes by. And Holy Schnikes do the make the water out yonder. The Delaware Basin HZ tight oil play is on very, very shaky ground. Literally. This is not investment advice, I have no ownership in Chevron I am aware of it; I want it to do well. I am not ragging on it at all, just reminding folks that tight oil abundance in but a fleeting thing and once again, maybe we should NOT be exporting all of America's tight oil away like we've got plenty of it. The good news is that Chevron has a pretty strict no flaring policy that I've heard it adheres to. Having said that, it might be a good idea for Chevy to indeed, let other people develop its minerals. Generally, wells appear to be getting worse in the Delaware Basin each and every year; in some densely drilled sweet spots, like EOG in Lea County, they are declining 6-8% per year. Thats not going to get better, its going to get worse. Nevetheless, Novi projects rig counts will stay the same, well quality will stay the same, GOR the same, WOR the same, Texas will keep taking New Mexico's produced water, OPEX stays the same, earthquakes the same, associated gas prices stay the same, flaring stays the same and there are so many Bone Springs locations left in the Delaware it will keep growing thru 2030. Same 'o same 'o. OK, its done raining and its 6 o'clock in South Texas. You know what THAT means!