300 F plus, some wells in the far SW corner of the play up to 385 F.

Don, I do not. I am not sure how to trust any data that comes forth from the ME and what, if anything, is true when it is reported. There is no way to really know what actual production is. Spare capacity? Who knows? 5.5% is alarming, if that is true, particularly since, for instance, the KSA has been on a mission to arrest those decline rates the best they can. Ultimately you can only drill so many infill wells to exponentially increase production rates. I tend to agree with Conway, when U.S. shale oil begins to wane the focus will shift more to what the rest of the world is producing. At the moment all anybody has on the brain is U.S. shale. I think OPEC is pretty smart and they know what they are doing with regard to managing the worldwide price of oil and bidding their time while the U.S. drains itself. We then might be surprised about spare capacity and fields that we did not even know existed....all of which will then be for sale for $100 a barrel, not discounted when sold to the U.S., by the way.

Here is a diagram showing the life span of gas depletion (oil expansion?) drive mechanisms in a typical shale oil well. GOR rises at the bubble point threashold, free gas breaks free from liquids, those liquids decline, then associated gas declines, GOR goes down and the well faces death as it reaches economic limits. Gas does not produce forever as some seem to think. Midland and Martin Counties are so heavilty saturated with wells the entire counties are basically bubbling out, GOR is skyrocketing, for the moment, WaHa Hub prices are worth spit and soon gas will be on the escalator down. Howard County to the NE, within the productive limits of the Midland Basin but thought to be very flank, Tier 3/4 country, particularly to the east, is already bubbled out and gas production for the country is tanking. To build multiple $40 billion LNG export facilities based on gassy shale oil wells turning into oily shale gas wells is lunacy. Ultra deep, HPHT Haynesville wells (18,000 TVD) cost $25-30MM each with 4-5 strings of casing. They make 8 BCF of gas in the first few months of production (appx. $6MM net to the WI) then start poopin' out, down to <1 BCF per month. People go ape nuts over these big wells but can't do the arthmetic that clearly shows they will struggle to pay out. Before anybody sets their air on fire about 100 years of natural gas and dominating the world with "freedom" LNG exports its best to do something simple math on economics, remember bigger is not always better, and more always leads to lower, more volatile natural gas prices. Ask all those small stripper gas producers around the country how they feel about the shale industry destroying their market using borrowed money they can't pay back.

A more detail map of the APP Basin shale gas play showing the two core areas and the extent of a USGS assessment. "Effective" area between the two core areas contains Tier 3 and 4 level locations, outside the effective area, the productive limits of the basin, contains trillions of technically recoverable gas that will require more than $15-20 per MMBTU to ever be attempted. The two core areas are saturated with long lateral HZ wells. The APP Basin is the basis for allegations regarding 100 years of natural gas supply in America.

The market for U.S. LNG. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-cost-of-liquefying-one-ton-of-LNG-ton-vs-LNG-plant-capacity-MTPA_fig5_309707225 The "cost" of liquifying natural gas can be between $2 and $4/MMBTU. That is before transportation.

I still do not know what a peak plateau is. Berman for the past year has been preaching abundance and how "silly" the concept of peak affordable oil is, now its something different. If you want to watch this, sorry, you are on your own. It is indeed a race for what is left, however. So, in the good 'ol US of A private enterprise squeezes it ouf of the ground, for rates of return that can be equaled with certificates of deposit at your local bank, then exports it to foreign countries.

Well said.

Eric Nutall on CNBC. When Sheffield said a couple of weeks at CERAWeek that the Permian Basin was exhausted, these two dudes were paying attention. "A number of factors will lead to a tighter oil market in 2025" is likely correct; with regard to shale oil, however, it has little to do with capital discipline. Shale oil economics suck at $65. Debt is increasing, hell...economics are so bad many big pure players are having to borrow money to pay dividends. The MSM and almost all ANALysts analyzing the shale phenomena have yet to embrace the word, depletion. If you don't understand oil and natural gas, never been there and actually DONE that, depletion is something you cannot understand, it seems. The fiscal discipline stuff is getting to be rediculous. Does that make sense to you, to borrow money to pay dividends? Does that suggest everything is peachy in the shale oil patch? Most importantly, does that suggest to you that it is still a good idea to export over 4.2MM BOPD of shale oil to foreign countries when we might, when we ARE, running out of affordable shale oil? We are trying to dominate the rest of the world with cheap American shale oil and shale gas at the expense of our own future. It will prove to be biggest blunder in United States energy policy history. Click the image to watch the comment.

These are massively large holes that are exactly what is needed in unconsolidated Gulf Coast sandstones. I am jealous of the size of these holes. They prevent drag, and shear affects on formation sand and are an absolute joy to gravel pack thru. I'd guess, however, as you point out, these are old shape jet charges. Todays TAG technology can burn a hole thru the carrier, thru 23 pound per foot pipe, thru 1 inch of cement sheath and out into the formation 30 inches...with no burs on the carrier whatsoever. In todays HZ shale oil wells they will shoot much smaller holes with 3 1/8th OD carriers inside 5 1/2 casing. They shoot those holes 4 SPF on 120 degree phasing and 75 foot stages, and 50 stages, there will be 15,000 holes blown in the casing on a 12,000 foot lateral, for example. They'll then pump 6 pound per gallon sand concentrations thru holes that are 0.45 inches in diameter at 80 BPM....50 times, a frac plug set between each stage. It can take 4 -5 days going wide open 24 hours a day just to frac the damn thing. Because the laterals are horizontal, and there is no gravity assist, all the perforating guns have to be tractored in and out. It is very cool. Thanks for this work of art !

We, including you, are getting far and few between.

APP Basin dry, unassociated natural gas production is rolling over. You must not for one minute believe this is function of volatile Henry or Houston natural gas prices; well productivity is falling when normalized per foot of lateral. They may have a little shut in, or had some shut in, but Henry has been over $3.70 for a month and production is still declining. The U.S LNG. energy dominance hooyey is dependent on Haynesville gas and associated gas from shale oil wells. But associated gas depletes in gas-depletion driven shale oil stimulated reservoir volumes, called SRV's (frac'ed cylinders around HZ laterals) not long after bubble point occurs. That gas will not last 100 years, that is a lie. The APP Basin is not nearly as big as the USGS has led people to believe, it is basically two pretty small core areas with some Tier 3 and 4 level gas between the two cores (dark shaded area in the map below) but NO economic gas (below $12) in the fringe areas (Saputra 2024); I will show you that paper very soon. Much like the Permian Basin shale oil USGS assessments, 65% of the "basin" containing imaginary "technically recoverable" gas will never get drilled short of prices no consumer can afford. Pennsylvanian's pay $12-13 per MCF in their homes to stay warm, six (6) times what producers get paid at the well head, gross, just a few miles down the road. Those utility prices will double if as much LNG is exported from the U.S. and this administration, and the sector, wants. As my landman friend from Midland likes to say, the $200B of LNG export facilities in play, the $200B being constructed and the $400B that are planned and being permitted will end up being part of the great United States Shale Museum some day very soon.

Well, it took me 20 minutes and a flow chart to figure this out. Ain't America great?! ...and we no gotte pay no stinkin' federal incomes taxes either! Not ever. Don't you foregt it, gringo.

So how does a pure shale oil player like Diamondback in the Permian imply a PDP R/P ratio of 8, on an SEC filing, no less, when its wells have a first year exponential decline 69.3%? The only explanation I have for that is the goal posts for PDP defintions has been moved to include PUD's. The SEC has historically allowed proximity based PUDS adjacent to a producing parent well (3,000 feet +/- ?) to be booked up to 50-60% of type curve EUR, I believe. This possible explanation might be related to Conway's link regarding DUC's, which I believe Endeavor had a bunch of. I do not know. PUD's don't have to be DUC's, they can just be proximity based PUD locations. I found this from 2023, the first quarter of the game using the new longer lateral playbook. The cummulative production profile shows the benefits of bigger IP's from more shale exposure, and suggests 2023 EUR's are headed higer. I am not buying that. Elsewhere they appear to be headed lower. My only other explanation (this one also a dumbass roughneck from Flatonia explanation) is when do they book these PDP reserves? If it is within 90 days of IP, the booking EUR must look awesome. If it based on BOE, at 6:1, it must look double awesome. And Midland and Martin Counties are sure getting gassy: FANG GOR, Midland Basin. This begs the question regarding debt ($18 B, with a big 'ol fat B) to asset ratios and how lenders feel about this "asset" stuff. If its my account I'd take their PDP estimates and discount it 60%. I guess dividend hounds buy stock in the shale oil sector for dividends and not growth. I'd be pissed if my shares got diluted to buy Endeavor and then whacked another $20B because, come to find out, the people in charge paid too much for Endeavor? Damn. Still thinking about this....

Bueno, mate !! Good.

I'd been told by engineer buddies working NE of Martin County that Enedeavor had a high inventory of DUC's that FANG accquired. Conway can you find the link, or reference to your comment about FANG's forecast, please?

Pour yourself a drink, peferably stout, and watch this. We lie to ourselves here in America every minute of every hour about energy and our nation's long term energy security...to avoid discomfort. And not have to face fear. There are likely people that understand this theory more than we think, that is why so many tell so many lies while...making so much money from telling those lies. Exporting our last remaining oil and natural gas resources, for instance. They think the more money they have the better their advantage will be over others. In other words, they're getting ready. At other people's expense. The Exxon Petroleum Institute (API) pays Mike Sommers over $2.5MM a year to get on CNBC, Fox Business, etc. and look us in the eye to say exporting shale oil to China, for instance, is good for our future. 100 years of natural gas resources, Real Clear Energy is paid to say. More pipe, more export facilities, fewer regulations is all we need to dominate the world with American energy, they need desperately for us to all believe. Aging Infrastructure, Fragile Systems, and Information Warfare with Dan O’Connor | TGS 168 This is pretty good, above. You won't like hearing much of it, betcha.

Aging Infrastructure, Fragile Systems, and Information Warfare with Dan O’Connor | TGS 168 Pour yourself a drink and watch this. We lie to ourselves here in America every minute of every hour about energy and our nation's long term energy security...to avoid discomfort. And not have to face fear. You won't like hearing much of this, betcha.

Absolutely, 1000%. History will show this amazing natural resource, made possible by the cunningness' of human ingenuity, to be the biggest example of American greed and poor management ever known. Shale oil and shale gas was our ticket; it has been totally pissed away under the auspices of "free enterprise." If you and I don't feel the pain of this mismanagement, our children will.

I would have loved to have seen the responses to THIS on LinkedIn/TunedOut, Jim. This is spot on. Who are biggest pie eaters? Royalty owners, to the tune of nearly $800B, in my opinion, in free royalty, bonus money for leases, fee damages and right of ways, etc. Your facts would not sit well with any of them and some of the nastiest chicken fights I have ever been in on social media over shale have been with the less than 1.8% of the American population who believe then are entitled to this $800B. And counting. CEO's and upper management got a big piece of the pie for orchestrating the pie eating contest, and then PE and lenders who skimmed off the top in the kitchen. All of it occured on borrowed money, other people's money. And here we go again, down to $50. Its amazing to me how stupid people can become when they have no skin in the game. Shareholders can always bail, no CEO or BOD ever personally guranteed a RB loan, or worried about paying a 40% AFE overage, hands just let their boats get repossessed, $70MM high school football stadiums in West Texas just don't get built...nobody looses. The game was played with fake money. Ah but America looses, doesn't it? The American people loose their hydrcarbon future while a few ride off in the sunset, their saddle bags stuffed with money.