Thank you, Robert. I want to hear more. Not gas, I hope. No sir, in America, regardless of race, creed, religion, political persuasion, or affiliation to college football....everybody lies about everything.

Its amazing isn't it? I think its just a different oilfield than the one we grew up in; back then we had to be pretty good at everything and do lots of different tasks. Nowdays everyone is so specialized at what they do they don't need to see the big picture. Not kidding, I had to spend 45 minutes with a frac engineer not long ago explaining to him the difference in gross barrels and net barrels to the WI. Good for you for teaching them that! I still marvel at how a country with just 4% of the world's PDP reserves is the number one producing country in the world.

This is some good thinking, Anne. Thanks. Ms. Hollub today said this in Midland, readers may click on the image above to read the link: (Bloomberg) -- Occidental Petroleum Corp. warned that US energy independence is at risk of slipping away if shale output plateaus and begins to decline. “It’s going to start to roll over, and when that happens, that’s when the US is at risk for losing our energy independence,” Chief Executive Officer Vicki Hollub said in a presentation at Hart Energy’s Executive Oil Conference in Midland, Texas, on Thursday. “That could come in the next five years that we start to see that plateauing happen.” In spite of all the MSM rheotric about increased efficiencies, better technology and improving well productivity, Permian production has been flat the past 12 months. The Energy Inaccuracy Administration (a big target for DOGE, IMO) will miss its 2024 projections by a half million BOPD. It seems to me the plateau has arrived. Permian crude output “will peak at slightly above 7 million barrels a day at the end of this decade,” said Pete Bowden, global head of industrial, energy and infrastructure investment banking at Jefferies Financial Group Inc. “But thereafter will decline more gradually than most experts expect.” But ignore Ms. Hollub, who is this yahoo above? For the Permian to grow 800K BOPD over the next 5 years, to 7 MM BOPD, the Permian will have to replace 4.5MM BOPD every year (annualized legacy decline) over that five year period, meaning 20MM BOPD more will have to be manufactured by 2030 in the Permian Basin before the 800,000 can be added on. Can't be done. The heart of the watermelon is chomped and there is no more vaccant motels to put produced water into. In the Delaware Basin the gas monster has them by the ying yang. There’s anywhere from 10 to 25 years of drilling inventory left in the Permian’s Delaware sub-basin, according to a presentation from ConocoPhillips, citing data from industry consultant Enverus. In the Midland sub-basin that has been producing oil for more than a century, the drilling inventory is seen in the range of eight to 15 years.  Fifteen more years in the Midland Basin?!! Gawd. There is so much lying going on about America's oil and natural gas future I don't have a clue how anybody can even keep up with it anymore. PS: The United States was never energy independent, never will be now, and why in the world would we want to be? Its a marathon, not a sprint.

https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/leigh-goehring-gold-bull-market?utm_campaign=Weekly%20Blog%20Notification&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8wTPynEu6d3Zo6OnOc2xln5Uup1mqkDPRDXBW_Z4drU2cp5m9o5a-Kb54zbPdilZZUX7M-wy4Xgt1PZIojErTBcRvQYw&_hsmi=335054548&utm_content=335054548&utm_source=hs_email

I will never get over how close together they drill these $9MM wells, or in the case of plus 8,500 foot laterals in the Delaware Basin, $10 MM each. It is remarkable what people will do with other people's money. We now know why there are calling for so many more drillable locations in the Midland Basin core...they will all be drilled on 500 foot spacing. You can never convince me those wells are not in communication with each other. Never. Thanks, Romain.

Posts by Christine Christine Guerrero Christine Guerrero • 1st • 1stPetroleum Professional, MBA, Strategic Advisor and Drilling SMEPetroleum Professional, MBA, Strategic Advisor and Drilling SME59m • Edited • 59 minutes ago The question on every Oil & Gas Investor and industry participants' mind going into 2025 = Is the Permian Basin at Peak or Plateau? Normalized well productivity (defined as bpd per foot per 1st year) is modestly deteriorating. Over the last few years this deterioration has been offset by drilling more feet using longer laterals. However, Rystad Energy believes we are on course to drill less lateral footage this year. Uphole Novi says longer laterals in the Permian Basin are the greatest thing since peanut butter and jelly sandwiches and because of longer laterals (short term) well productivity is going up. Accordingly, well economics are great ! If thats true then why does Rystad say longer lateral footage is going down; it should be going up, not down. Again, look at a TRRC GIS map of the Permian, its got 55,000, 5,000 ft. lateral wells crammed into core areas and there is just not much more room for longer laterals. When the bloom is off that bush the Permian is going to tank. The only thing that will keep it propped up will be more rigs, Lots more rigs. And that will take lots more money the sector does not have.

Here is Novi's take on longer laterals, just out...perhaps in response to my post? You can read about it here on Lindkin: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ted-cross-tx_long-laterals-are-more-important-than-ever-activity-7265006855918149632-L29u?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop Strong economics is qualatative. No well costs mentioned for us to make up our own mind on economics; just a reminder that gas and gas liquids is approaching 50% of the production streams from new Permian wells and WaHa is still a negative number. Black lines are plus 3 milers and those EUR's are lower, as I have suggested many times. No word on how many of these super long laterals there are to drill in the Midland Basin, or out West...not many left, IMO. Increased lateral length has been a major driver of improved per-well productivity and drilling efficiency numbers that have driven solid 2024 production. With 4-mile tests now coming online, extended laterals are more important than ever in the Permian. Improved per-well productivity means on an IP90 basis, as I pointed out in my post...not by EUR. Higher up front cash flow gets to payout faster, but does NOT necessarily make more money in the long term. Novi likes 2 year payouts as that is the basis for much of their remaining drillable location predictions.

I personally believe that because longer laterals lead to higher IP90s, but much steeper 12 month decline rates (73% in the Permian!!), we are already past 4.5MM BOPD annualized decline rates. That means that approximately 85-88% of all HZ tight oil wells drilled in the U.S. each year do nothing more than replace the previous years shale oil decline. We are therfore relying on a diminishing number to HZ shale oil wells each year to show growth and when 13,000 foot laterals can no longer be drilled, for instance in the Permian Basin, because there is no more room to drill them in the middle of all those 5,000 foot laterals, Permian tight oil production is going to fall hard. When the Permian falls, so does U.S. shale oil production. In almost all major U.S. tight oil basins new wells are less liquids (C+C) productive, associated gas is making up a larger percentage of the production stream and they are making more and more produced water. With fewer places to inject the stuff. 165,000 HZ shale oil wells in the U.S., and counting, one $9MM well at a time, well after well for 400,000 BO EUR's each. The writing is on the wall.

This is a good article, thanks. A lot of people will suggest this is voluntary, because of a desire to keep the price oil propped up, that there is a lot of spare capacity with OPEC, why produce more when the U.S. is on a mission to drain itself dry in a few years...nobody knows. Maybe this is all OPEC can do. Permian Basin tight oil production has been wallering around 5.6 MM BOPD for the past 11 months. Maybe thats all it can do.

I am aware of the role that LTO plays in the refinery scheme. It makes good gasoline and because we are decade or more from affordable renewables as a transportation fuel in the US. and most of America is rural, every year matters. I don't think I would eat all the food in my cashe at one time just because I knew I was going to starve to death anyway. Thank you for the comment, sir.

'' Without diesel fuel — the lifeblood of transportation, agriculture, mining and construction — civilization would grind to a halt. Despite knowing for decades that the source of this fuel — oil — is a finite resource, we still haven’t been able to find a scalable replacement. What we have found ourselves in, instead, is a massive Ponzi scheme: where we constantly need to add “newer and better” energy sources just to keep the system going… Thereby perpetuating the use of coal, oil and gas despite their grave impacts on the environment, and worsening returns on investment. In this two part series I’m going to address the quandary of energy extraction, and how civilization tries to adapt to the worsening consequences of the depletion of rich mineral and petroleum deposits. Note: my goal is not to ruin your day or give life-changing or investment advise, but to offer a solid understanding of our situation and to lay out a map of possibilities. ''   Twelve minute read . https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/a-diesel-powered-civilization-8ed106beeb08

Wright stands out as one of the most energetic, entrepreneurial, and intelligent individuals I’ve ever met. He’s relentlessly curious and innovative. He’s also an unapologetic energy humanist and an unapologetic advocate for energy realism. He is one of the energy sector’s most vocal advocates for domestic energy production and increased energy availability throughout the developing world. Robert Bryce The only oilman I ever met in 60 years as a Texas independent producer that thought he could not drill his way out of financial trouble was...me. It is inheritant in an oilman's DNA that we will never face hydrcoarbon scarcity, that the stuff grows on trees, every year a new crop to harvest, we just need more money to shake the trees. That has never been more evident to me than what we see in the Permian Basin HZ tight oil play right now. It will all last forever. "We have more liquid gold under our feet than Saudi Arabia." It won't. No oilfields or oil plays EVER in the history of the world last forever. They all deplete. When this one is done in America, what's next? Trump, Wright, Hamm, Stice, Woods, Wirth, Abbot, the three TRRC Commissioners, Summers...they know what depletion is they know the Permian is close; they don't care. They're not going to conserve resources for the future, or prevent natural gas waste up a flare stack, they're not going to mitigate pressure depletion, or stop over drilling sweet spots, nothing. Not until they have to. Not until its too late. They're in charge and the only thing that matters to them is making a buck. Eight percent (8%) recovery rates of OIP along a HZ lateral's SRV? They've had the same RR's for 15 years. I rest my case. "Those shale guys are wild men. I'll make them drill baby drill. If they drill themselves out of business, I don't care." D. Trump; N. Carolina, Oct. 2024

Here's looking at you , kid .--- Humphry Bogart in Casablanca . '' The Oilfield Girls '' . Artist Jerry Bywater 1940

This seems like a really good time to remind Americans that since the export ban was lifted in the beginning of 2016 to August 2024, U.S. crude oil and condensate production grew 4.2 MM BOPD and all of that oil has been exported to foreign countries...some 10.2 billion barrels, in fact. Gone. That, by the way, is enough light, tight oil for the U.S. to refine and consume in 6.3 years. Since 97% of that growth has come from just 7 counties in the Permian Basin its important to know it took 37,708 new HZ shale oil wells drilled from Jan. 2016 to Aug. 2024 to achieve that growth and cost $339,000,000,000, with a B, to drill those wells the past 8 years. With all this exporting, the price oil went from $26 WTI in 2016 to $67 in August of 2024...UP over $43 a barrel. Exports did not seem to help the American consumer much.

$8.8B, actually and appears to average a little south of 4.9% average interest rate across many different loans. Bad choice to prove a point, Devon. But other big pure players that don't have as much long term debt have worse debt to asset ratios. I don't believe in net debt; debt is debt. 100% meanningless article that affected millions of people and made them all feel very oil safe and secure. We are not. Sorry about suggesting Democrats go to Canada the other day; many said they were going anyway to flee the U.S. Don't come down here man; there is a bad stuff brewing, what appears to be a refusal to accept the election outcome. The garbage and deplorables in the country are NOT taking it well. The anger and devisiveness is growing, not getting better. The country is unravaeling. The woman in Georgia, going for a jog, who was rapped and murdered by a Venezuelan illegal piece of shit; the evidence is overwhelming against him. He chose a trial by judge, not jury, and he will skate; watch. There are thousands of these guys around, all over America; just down my street in South Texas. The left now calls theese illegal immigrants that violated American law, now facing deportation, "political prisoners."

Thanks for this, Stephen. I hope you are doing well? I'm not a financial analyst, I am not even much of a shale oil analyst, just an oilman who understands well economics very well. I can assure everyone at $68/$1 most HZ tight oil wells being drilled today are not cash cows. The sector CAN self finance its current rig count, but no more and it is not deleveraging debt. Its actually adding debt, as one would expect with consolidations. The authors example, Devon, below. IMO a debt to equity ratio of 0.61 is not very healthy when the oil you produce is declining 85+% the first 32 months of production life: Morningstar suggests Devon's breakeven price for oil is $36...sorry, ain't buyin' that. The incremental lift costs per BOE is this article for DVN I do not accept, sorry. Be very weary of any analysis using BOE as the benchmark and determining what the netback is per BOE. Robert, downhole, is absolutely correct; the two revenue streams (now close to 50/50 in the Delaware Basin) should be analyzed seperately. I've been thru all this greater "efficiency" stuff a lot recently and I don't see in SEC filings where well costs have come down a lot. They are, as we know, going to skyrocket with tariffs on steel. DVN makes a Lake Erie of produced water every day in the Delaware. Its 2023 wells were not so good and its EUR's are falling. Its 2024 wells may be better on a short term basis, but long term, no. Consolidations in a mature oil play generally always mean the end is near. I do not agree with RBN's charts at all, but then again, I am not an analyst, just an oil man. There are two ways to look the U.S. tight oil sector, one from the standpoint of an investment for the sake of dividends, or two, from the standpoint of long term sustainability and the ability to deliver the goods for our nation's long term future. I've learned not to get in chicken fights with dividend owners...they are worse than royalty owners. If that is one's definition of "good for America," dividends, knock yourself out. On the later, the long term future of tight oil in our country, everything these corporations do are for money and they could care less what the future looks like four years from now for our country. On this article,

This statement by a data-sell company has implications regarding longer laterals that are NOT true; it is qualatative statement depending on the defintion of "effective" resource extraction, increased output per well and optimization of leased areas. IP90's do not make wells more productive by any definition and the bigger they are the first few months the harder they fall. This headline from a major industry magazine implies reservor recovery is "enhanced" by drilling longer laterals and can NOT be proven to be true at this time. In fact, just the opposite is likely true with regard to recovery rates of OIP along a horizontal lateral or stimulated reservor volume (SRA) surrounding a lateral. Optimum lateral lengths based on maximizing recovery of oil is way different that those for maximizing up front cash flow. This is an independent study done by two SPE members on longer laterals in the Bakken. I can find six papers just like this for longer laterals in the Permian, including one in the Journal of Petroleum Technology. Poor stimulation of perforation clusters toward the toe in a super long lateral actually reduce recovery rates of OIP in the last several thousand feet of lateral. That oil is then stranded and lost forever. Unless you want to be a working interest owner in $9MM HZ wells that have total ROI's over 12 years of 50%, and are netted like a mullet over up front cash flow, or are a day trader and eaten up with 4% dividend rates, estimated ultimate recoveries from long lateral wells is lower and just one more example of how this amazing resource in America is grossly, negligently, being mismanaged for our nation's long term energy security.

Where's Waldo? Martin County has a number of plus 12,000 foot laterals, can you find them? Now find room for plus 18,000 foot laterals. This is overpressured San Andres country up here and a lot of HZ wells in Martin take an intermediate string of casing and/or liners with OH packer assemblies to be able to drill thru the San Andres. The Upper Spraberry can be very pressure depleted. This is earthquake city up in here, also. Whats the point in all this? The only thing that will keep the Permian Basin an important producing region in the United States, and in the world, is more drilling rigs turning to the right. Lots of drilling rigs. And lots and lots of money. Then, just like that, it will be over.

Operational Success: EOG highlighted consistent execution and success in drilling and completing longer laterals in the Permian Basin, particularly in the Delaware Basin, where they drilled four three-mile laterals in 2023 and planned to drill more than 50 in 2024. EOG is operating appx. 2,200 HZ wells in Lea and Eddy Counties in what appears to be about 367,000 acres in those two counties. Most of the short lateral wells in red are in the Wolfcamp A&B and Bone Springs 2, I think. In this map see 4 laterals longer than 13,500 feet. This area of Lea County is its most concentrated acreage positions, short of blocks on the NW shelf. You decide how many more 15,000 plus foot laterals can drill in the Delaware Basin; 50 in 2024 may pretty much wind it up. Please note that EOG's EUR's are dropping like a rock in 2023. I don't know. It would be great to know, but we hardly ever really know much of anything, do we? Here is block of EOG acreage just cross the State line, in Loving County, Texas, in Sandbar Field; they like to pack 'em in there, uh? Try getting a 15,000 footer in that mess.