Sometimes you just gotta draw a picture for people to grasp the significance of something.

In this visualization we see HZ tight oil production from the 3rd largest producing county in the entire Permian Basin, Midland, how fast it rose from the vertical Spraberry dust into its current HZ glory. Saudi America, Sheffield coined it.

We can see, at least I can, that each successive year of the HZ plays existence its rate of annualized decline has gotten steeper and steeper. We also see that its C+C volumes have kept growing and growing from now 9,900 HZ wells stacked in the county, in every bench that will produce, like cord wood behind the barn, many drilled as close as 330 feet apart. Parent child interference is rampant; degradation and pressure depletion are all in 4th gear.

Then we can see how fast the entire shebang would drop if no new wells were drilled starting tomorrow morning. In less that 5 years 6.4 MM BOPD would be less than 2 MM BOPD and still declining at something like 15-18% per year.

Twenty more years of drilling in Midland County, they say, all Tier 1 level wells that "breakeven" at <$50 WTI, as if breakeven was the goal when the two largest producers in the country, Exxon and FANG, are collectively $62 billion dollars in long term debt with likely another $14B in P, A and decommissioning liability.

OK, well, good luck with all that. Go Exxon, go! Singapore needs you.