These are the parameters in which I follow Permian Basin HZ tight oil production. These are HZ wells in unconventional "tight" shale or shaley carbonate formations that meet the early definition of shale oil set back in 2012. I have not changed definitions, added new formations nor moved the goal posts; these parameters are what I have used since the get go.

I have filtered out short lateral or deviated/directional well bores to Guadalupian Delaware sandstones in the shallow Queen, Grayburg, San Andres, Glorietta, etc.; those are conventional benches that produced forever before the shale phenomenon started and have gotten a bump lately because of HZ drilling. Those classification of wells lie in both the Delaware, Midland and Central Platform regions. They have nothing to do with tight oil in the Permian.

HZ, unconventional production in Eddy and Lea Counties in New Mexico continues to decline in spite of longer laterals, greater efficiencies, whatever that means, more proppant loading, more perforated stages, AI data, half the royalty burdens everybody else in the Permian Basin bares and pumping/trucking produced water to Texas for disposal (where there was a BIG earthquake south of Midland this morning!)

Well productivity is falling significantly now, a function of over-drilling on too close of spacing, ensuing well interference and "degradation," which means pressure depletion, but everybody is scared to say that. This is not going to get better, it's going to get worse.

I received this, this morning, from Novi, regarding how extensive the productivity decline has become in the Delaware...

"Despite remaining economic scale, per-foot productivity has slipped ~22% from its 2017 peak, the Wolfcamp A is ~73% drilled through, and only ~5 years of sub-$40/bbl rock remain.

I show it to be over 25% since 2021.