All of America's major shale oil basins have peaked and are struggling to maintain current production rates of about 1 MM BOPD, except the Permian Basin. The remainder of America's future oil eggs, in fact, are now entirely in the Permian basket.
Most of that Permian tight oil no longer benefits the America consumer, it is exported to foreign entities. As of July 2021 those exports equaled 3.2MM BOPD [EIA]) and amounted to 75-80% of total light, tight oil production from the Permian Basin of 4.2 MMBOPD [shaleprofile.com].
Both sub basins in the Permian are being over drilled, pressure depletion is causing well productivity to decline ever so slightly and associated gas production to increase significantly. In the Delaware Basin rising GOR is only slightly more of a problem than rising water to oil ratios. Production in the Permian is still growing, slightly, but its taking more wells, longer laterals, more sand, more groundwater, more seismicity in areas of produced water disposal and more...borrowed money.
The decline in Wolfcamp, Bone Spring and Sprayberry in the Permian will suck you plum off your feet if you are standing behind it; a whooping 86% the first 32 months of production life. To continue to grow, those shale fellas are mass manufacturing $9MM wells like there is no tomorrow.
How long do you think that will last? Do you really believe that, unlike any oil field, or resource play in 150 years of history, the American shale oil phenomena, even the mighty Permian Basin, will last forever? On a PDP reserve to production ratio basis the EIA says only 10 more years...if everybody is telling the truth about reserves.
In spite of all that, every barrel of tight oil Texas now added to US production levels has to be exported to a foreign country; it comes out the ground, goes straight to the Gulf Coast, is put on a ship and sails away. Crude quality matters and US refiners simply can't use any more of the stuff.
Everybody is lying to you about the fact that we have enough shale oil to spare in our nation, that our resources are "unlimited," or that shale oil might be stranded in 5 years because of the transition to renewables and it needs to be produced now...that draining America first, for exports, is a good plan for our nations long term energy security.
Don't fall for it. Someday very soon we're going to wish we had every barrel of tight oil that we exported to Asia, and every MCF of gas pissed off up a flare stack, back.
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