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Gold set a near record vs. oil at 28 times as gold breaches $2,400
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hole in head
Apr 13, 2024
Well don’t look now but the USD just hit a new low against gold!It now takes over $2400 USDs to buy an ounce of gold. It is currently hard to understand exactly why the value of the USD has recently been falling verses gold.Yes, inflation is part of the big picture but we have been experiencing the effects of inflation every year for decades.So, it can not be solely the effects of inflation suddenly pushing the value of the USD to new lows against gold. However, there is another kicker to confuse people, the value of the USD is going up against the rest of the world’s currencies!So, how can the USD be getting stronger against the rest of the world’s currencies while at the same time making new lows against gold?And while US interest rates are higher than much of the west too. In the world of fiat currencies, the USD is considered to be the cleanest dirty shirt amoung other world fiat currencies.Also many other countries use the USD in the form of US Treasury Bonds to back their currencies. So if the value of the USD is going up against other world currencies, then there must be a demand for USD from the rest of the world.In other words, there must be a slight shortage of USDs available to buy.What could cause an increased demand for USD?Other countries selling USD to support their falling currencies? Has anybody notice what has been happening in the US Treasury bond market in the last few years?More and more US Treasury bonds are being issued to fund the US government deficits.So, who is buying all the new US Treasury bonds?New US regulations are forcing many US entities to buy only US Treasury bonds.Certainly China and Russia are not buying US Treasury bonds!Well, the number of foreign buyers of US Treasure bonds has been steadily falling.In response, the US Fed has been steadily monetizing more and more US Treasury bond purchases.In layman’s terms, the Fed has been creating more and more USD out of thin air to buy all the excess US Treasury bonds, nobody else wants to buy! Now if you are a large holder of US Treasury bonds, how are you feeling with rising inflation?How about the fact the the US and Europe seized Russian central bank’s reserves held in USD and Euros?If you are a foreign holder of US Treasury bonds, and a possible future potential recipient of having the USD weaponized against you, you are probably pretty nervous!You probably want to get out of USD and Euros too.So, maybe you are quietly trying to sell some of your US Treasury bonds?When you sell a US Treasury bond, you usually expect to receive USD in cash in return.(Maybe you are then using your USD to buy some gold too?) So, could selling US Treasury bonds be the big new source of demand for USD?We probably won’t know for years, if this is the real reason.But something is happening! P.S. There are other reasons for the demand for USD, like investing in the US but these are usually on-going and don’t represent a new big sudden shift in the USD market.
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