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Permian Basin Tight Oil & Gas Stuff

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Barnett Update

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This from Novi. It says exactly what you would expect it to say. The Midland Basin has peaked, well productivity is falling on all relative metrics (over-drilling= well interference =degradation =pressure depletion), but not to worry because Tier 1 level locations are only 55% taken and there is lots of running room.


Economics are half-cycle = breakeven @ $50 WTI, even discounted 25%. Spacing used in this analysis must be <500 feet on every bench, D&C costs remain the same forever and produced water disposal is not a problem. Pressure depletion never gets worse, in spite of more wells in the cores, etc. etc. Everything is good. Naturally.


In spite of Exxon/Diamondback's super duper long laterals, they can't arrest the decline in the Midland Basin. It has indeed peaked, it appears. WDB.
In spite of Exxon/Diamondback's super duper long laterals, they can't arrest the decline in the Midland Basin. It has indeed peaked, it appears. WDB.

Let's get updated on the Barnett, because everybody is hanging their hard hats on that to save the world.


I included Andrews, Ector and Crane Counties in this mix. As I've suggested before these wells are deep, require multiple strings of pipe,…


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Mike
Mike
yesterday

Novi, I now see, has changed 20 years to 13.5 years based on more precise, reasonable assumptions. Like profit.

Edited

Permian Well Count

Novi and Enverus will have different well counts for the Permian, it's all about... definitions, what to include and what not to. We want to focus on HZ laterals in primary and secondary unconventional benches in both sub-basins.


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There are 65,118 HZ wells in these two sub-basins (welldatabase.com). These are active producing wells, temporarily abandoned wells, abandoned wells awaiting P&A, DUCs, wells awaiting permit approval, wells with approved permits awaiting spudding and wells in progress. These wells currently take up space in limited remaining reservoir rock, or will when permitted wells are spud. We want to know what to expect from the remaining empty spaces; from a recovery standpoint, costs and related well economics.


The time frame for this HZ development begins 1 January 2010 and ends 1 July 2026. History is vague as to when the first HZ lateral was drilled to a source bed in the Permian but…



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