Associated gas from HZ tight oil wells in the Permian Basin has risen dramatically over the years for two reasons: a.) more wells were being completed every year up until mid 2024 and b.) longer laterals that are now increasing associated gas IP180s and offsetting fewer wells being completed. Like oil.

The future of associated gas from HZ tight oil wells is limited, in my opinion. That is because of lower oil prices, bad well economics and falling productivity. When the longer lateral phase ends, gas will go the way of liquids. Down.

I've show you extensively the past few months that when normalized for lateral lengths the associated gas EURs from "oil" wells in the core counties in the Permian, above, is generally speaking, 2.2-2.5 BCF each.

Here is a Novi chart for cumulative associated gas vs. time for HZ tight gas wells in the Permian drilled in shallower depths, on the east flank of the Midland Basin and west flank of the Delaware Basin. These are actually tight oil wells that exceed initial GOR of 10:1 and can then be classified as gas wells.

They tend to average 4.8 BCF EURs. I think gas productivity is falling in 2024 and 2025 because all wells appear to be getting less productive.

You decide how many HZ tight gas wells can be drilled in a very narrow window and near the high GOR areas of both sub-basins. There are already a bunch of wells drilled in this window. Remember, these tight gas wells make significantly less C +C and cost the same as other wells, without M&A land costs; $10-$11MM each. Gas prices in WaHa will have to increase dramatically, at least in parity with Henry Hub and more, for Permian HZ wells to be drilled for gas.

Here is a cumulative gas vs. time chart for the Haynesville and Deep Western Haynesville. Here we can see pretty clearly that by year 5 in this data set (2020-05.2025) that 90 % of the EUR has pretty much been realized. Haynesville EURs work out to be something like 9.4 BCF each.

Many might argue that 2024 well productivity has fallen because of curtailments related to prices. I can't imagine spending $10-12MM to drill, complete and tie in a well to then restrict its production rates, but I am not a shale guy. I don't know anything about remaining drillable locations in the Haynesville. Gas wells are generally drilled on much more conservative spacing because recovery rates of GIP can be upwards of 30%. The overlying Bossier is not generally considered part of the Haynesville, a single bench. I have read that the Haynesville is not economic below $4; its gas I guess is main-lined south to Katy, Houston Ship and/or Henry.

I just don't understand where all this LNG feedstock is going to come from on a prolonged, sustainable basis, one that would justify $54 B plus of expenditures underway and planned in the short term. There is nothing I can do about it anyway, except worry that exporting American gas is going to leave America in a lurch. The 100 years of natural gas supply baloney from the tight shale industry have everybody zeroed in on...money.