District 9 was a South African science fiction movie; District 8 is the major oil producing region of Texas. To recap briefly, Howard County was the first tight oil-producing county to go through the bubble point:

It did that in July 2023. Howard County’s oil production fell 26% in the year to July 2024 and then a further 22% in the year to July 2025. The fall over two years was 42% from the 2023 peak. If repeated throughout the rest of the Permian Basin, going through the bubble point would signal an imminent, rapid decline in oil production.

So how is that going? The graph of Texan oil production by district shows how important District 8 is to the world’s oil supply:

It looks like District 8 has rolled over into decline. Is that just noise that could be reversed by a bit of extra drilling or has it passed through the bubble point? The plot of gas/oil ratio against oil production rate suggests that it did that in February 2025:

That is confirmed by another way of looking at the data. From the textbook-quality example of Howard Country, the bubble point is indicated by a rapid decline in oil production rate and an increase in the rate of change of the gas/oil ratio:

For District 8 in aggregate, the two coincident trend changes that signal the month of the bubble point occurred in February 2025: