According to the EIA DPR, Permian completions are 445 per month for the past 5 months, and oil production is about 5.67 MMBOPD. These are likely fictitious numbers but they're fun to look at. This means that every well must ultimately recover 386 MSTBO to achieve Steady-State, where daily oil depletion is replaced by new wells. Let's define this individual well EUR as the "Steady-State Requirement" (SSR).

The SSR has increased at an average of around 2,200 barrels per month over the past 36 months as shown below. Daily Production in the Permian has grown as shown in the upper right, fit with the quadratic equation illustrated.

The assumption is that production growth occurs when the well performance exceeds the SSR and will decline when the well performance is lower than the SSR.

We can combine the linear fit of the SSR and the quadratic fit of the Daily BOPD into the graph on the lower right, which illustrates the change (slope) of the daily production curve against the Steady-State requirement. This graph indicates at a SSR of 383 MSTBO, the daily production goes negative.

The Steady-State Requirement can be lowered by any combination of completing more wells or reducing total production and vice-versa. At $60 WTI, a well right at the SSR would generate $17MM in revenue to the working interest over its life.

It is amazing to me how the "tragedy of the commons" works out some 400 years after the Pilgrims nearly starved. Any resource play will naturally find the risk-free rate of return, on average.