I've been away the past 10 days Permit fishing in warmer climates with only electricity from generators. There was Wi-Fi, sadly, as there now is in most places in the remote world, none of which matters to me in the least bit because the only time I turn on a stupid phone on these trips is to pose with a big fish. Please see Other Stuff on OSC.

It's colder than a well diggers ass up north, nat-gas is $4.80 at Henry and all the O&G internet experts are beside themselves with abundance glee. The price goes up, the shale sector, flush with other people's money, dusts off rigs and sends them out to drill wells that by the time they go online the temperature in Minnesota will be back to 80F and Henry below $3. Not to mention those prices NEVER got above $3 in the Permian anyway. Check that, never got above zero at WaHa.

It's quite possible to "time" natural gas production to demand, particularly short investment cycle shale, and not over-supply the market to drive the price down, all it takes is being able to think past next week. The shale sector has oddly NEVER been able to do that.

www.oilystuff.com

I did some big work several months regarding remaining drillable locations left in the Midland basin using lots of actual Novi charts, from realized production data.

In any case it was evident that based on Novi's own research that there were very few economically feasible Tier 1/2 locations left in the Midland Basin below $65 and most of the reason for that was "degradation" of the rock due to parent-child well interference. Domestic squabbles between children and parents are a direct result of drilling wells too close together and pressure depletion. Well quality is declining precipitously now because of that. We also proved degradation was exponentially increasing terminal decline rates.

My learned PE friend, brookpe, went so far as to say about the post that the HZ Wolfcamp well the sector delays drilling today might not be so good tomorrow, even WITH higher oil prices. This stuff is depleting quickly now, IMO. The Delaware, in the juicy Bone Springs, has worse communication problems. BTW. Just wait. When Lea County is drilled out, that's all she wrote.

Anyway, about how quickly depletion in the Midland is occurring now, here 'ya go; as we've determined, if you don't drill all these secondary benches now, I mean right now, they will produce 40% less in the future because of pressure depletion...

The Permian HZ tight oil play is pretty much done. Stick a fork in it in three to four years, max. There will be no prolonged plateau. What did Berman call it, "peak plateau?" Good grief.

So, it's probably a good time for folks to turn their attention to associated gas, big deep Haynesville wells that will never payout, $72 billion in LNG buildout and big plants that make artificial intelligence, a term very applicable in today's society, for sure.

Except that won't last that long either. We'll all be stupider because of AI, and most folks will work less than they do now, if that's possible, and we won't be able to drive anywhere. Oil is depleting and there won't be anything to make electricity out of for an EV as it is all being gobbled by LNG and "artificial" intelligence.

I wonder someday if AI will be able to say to the human race, man...you guys were stupid about oil and gas. WTF were you thinking?!

New U.S production highs, for instance, are directly related to longer laterals and bigger IP360's, but they are drilled in pressure depleted areas also and decline like somebody cut the cables on an elevator. They will run out of places to drill longer laterals very soon, already are (playing horseshoes) and when that happens U.S oil production is going to take a dump.

You heard it here first...or you can wait and read it on Substack later and act surprised.