Novi published this ten days ago. I fussed about it for lack of specifics, poor, half cycle well economics and falling well productivity. My fussin' made it over to LinkedIn where other people were skeptical, as well. Novi's author, Dr. Garzon responded several days later on LinkdIn with this chart and ensuing comment:

I don't understand the reference to Basin "erosion" by parent wells; the exercise in oilfield development is to drill as few wells as possible that will produce as much oil as possible and effectively drain as much of effected reservoir(s) as possible. Funny thing about that plan: that's also the way to make the most money. It seems to me that irresponsible adults had too many really expensive, unnecessary damn kids and they're the ones calling all the problems, not the parents.

Here is a very recent chart from Novi showing what it defines as parent wells in the Midland Basin, some 2,200 wells in eight different benches. The mean average EURs for the parent wells, by AI/machine learning, is something like 435,000 BO.

"Degradation" of the (benches in) Midland Basin is another word for pressure depletion, which in the case of tight oil in the Permian occurs because of over drilling core areas, on too close a spacing between wells and poor gas to oil ratio management by operators gutting wells for maximum cash flow. It follows then that child wells drilled around parent wells will likely have lower EURs.

Please notice in Chart 2 what benches in the Midland Basin are most subject to future degradation. Two of them, the Jo Mill and Dean are secondary targets to the most prolific benches in the Basin, the Wolfcamp A & B and Lower Spraberry. 93% of all tight oil production in the Basin come from these three benches, the biggest, by far, being the Wolfcamp A. So, if it is subject to future degradation, it's because it's pretty much on its last legs anyway.

Which brings us to this Novi chart:

On the left Novi has identified drilled (and completed; DUCs are gone) wells in the Midland Basin that are in Tier 1 and 2 cores (dark green) in various benches (8). On the right is its machine generated remaining drillable locations of Tier 1 quality. How many Tier 1 level locations are there, exactly?

Well, it depends on product prices, naturally. I am on record as not being a fan of Novi's well economics and therefore its "breakeven tranche;" it's not full cycle stuff and appears to leave out interest expense on debt per incremental BOE, dividends, most corporate overhead, weighted OPEX that covers all surface and downhole maintenance over time, plugging, decommissioning, etc. etc. Whatever, let's use its chart above, say that for the next 3 years and 3 months oil prices will not go above $70 (Trump effect) short of all-out war and use 18,500 remaining drillable locations.

Dr. Garzon now tells us, however, that fully 50% of those drillable locations are going to be subject to a whopping 60% degradation by pressure depletion. That suggests that over half the future wells drilled in Tier 1 level locations might only produce 174,000 BO EUR's, not 435,000 BO EURs like the original parents. Well shit. That ain't good. Who would drill those, even at $100 oil?

That leaves us only 9,250 economic, Tier 1 level wells left in the Midland Basin to drill if oil prices are $70 or more. And whomever drills those wells better do their homework as to where they drill them. It they are withing spittin' distance of a parent, whoa Nellie.

Here's the big problem: WTI on the NYMEX closes at $58.90 yesterday the 10th. Nobody, I repeat NOBODY makes enough profit at those gross WH prices to justify drilling any HZ tight oil wells in the Midland Basin, Permian, or anyplace else. NOBODY.

And here's another really BIG problem

Depletion never sleeps and this rather alarming level of "degradation" occurring in the Midland Basin is getting worse every day. As my PE buddy, J.B. says, that well Exxon didn't drill last week isn't going to be as good a well to drill next year. Above is a cumulative oil vs. time chart for Permian HZ tight oil wells, normalized for lateral lengths, that CLEARLY shows well productivity has been falling for the past three years. Big time, even the first 6 months of 2025.

So that giant sucking sound you hear east of Midland City, is the Midland Basin being drained like somebody pulled the plug to drain the Yeti ice chest.

At 2,200 wells per year being completed in the Midland Basin, at current rig rates and product prices, that leave less that 4 years of drilling left. And if you are FANG, likely the largest pure tight oil player in the Midland Basin, and $13B in long term debt, you better hurry.

We have been on a mission from God for over a decade to drain Texas of its hydrocarbon resources as fast as possible. We're gettin' 'er done !

Mike Shellman, PhD (post hole digger)