Here is a Novi chart for all HZ tight oil wells drilled in the Permian Basin from 2016 to July 2025. These well profiles (by year) are normalized for lateral lengths. At month 24 for 2023 wells the cumprod. is 218K BO. 2024 and 2025 wells are on a definite path for lower cumprod. than 2023 wells.

These reported barrels of oil are gross to the 100%. The working interest, the people that have to pay the bills only receive, on average 77.5% of this gross production. So, for 2023 a typical Permian Basin operator drilling HZ wells has netted only 169,000 BO in 2 years.

Between the two sub-basins in the Permian I am pretty much 100% certain that a typical 19,500 ft. TMD HZ well is going to cost $10 MM, at least, in today's environment, and that does not include land costs that a lot of companies have incurred in the past 3 years thru mergers and acquisitions.

To meet Novi's definition of what price is necessary to pay out a $10MM well in 2 years, and that well makes 169,000 BO, the price of oil has to be $59...net of all operating, corporate full-cycle overhead costs, taxes, etc.

$59 per BO has actually been the gross oil price for WTI on the NYMEX the past month, give or take.

There are no production costs per incremental BO (OPEX) deducted, no taxes, no costs to cover corporate overhead to keep the business ABLE to operate wells, no dividend expense, no interest on long term debt included, no actually paying long term debt back or covering the cost of plugging and cleaning all the shit up...NOTHING like that. This break-even estimate is a distortion of facts that works to deceive 99.9999% of the public who does know any better. WELLS DO NOT PAYOUT IN 2 YEARS BELOW $75 OIL.

Very few to NO HZ tight oil wells drilled in the U.S. right now are actually breaking even. Data-sell companies, and pundits can leave out costs, and change definitions all they want...wells don't pay for themselves in 2 years and when drillable locations acquired in M&A's, as they should, not even 5 years.

Add in a BCF of gas in 2 years, and its NGL's, just make sure you are nowhere near WaHa. It still doesn't work.

The true, full cycle breakeven price of America's HZ tight oil wells is in the mid $90's.