Mike- I hope you're fishing, playing golf, or eating a cheeseburger, and that's why you haven't posted on this.
Below is the snippet from Zerohedge about Travis Stice's letter to investors about the future of the Permian Basin and the domestic oil industry as a whole. His letter echos, essentially word for word, what you've been posting on here. Key points being "we believe we are at a tipping point for US oil production" and "geological headwinds outweigh the tailwinds provided by improvements in technology and operational efficiency".
Stice is a very smart guy. Van't Hoff, his successor (whether it's been announced or not, we all know it is), is equally smart. They bought Endeavor because in their minds, they had to. If they don't get it, Chevron is gobbling FANG up. Then they buy DE4, which most of us knew wasn't the best acreage, but it was the best of what was left. It was buy to survive.
As a final point, every company that has bought DE has had to sell except #1, which was Devon in the cline shale (a total disaster for the chinese investor $). DE2 goes to Parsley. Little Sheffield has to sell to daddy Sheffield. DE3 to Pioneer. Pioneer sells to Exxon. Guess who is next in line. We locals have a soft spot for Diamondback. They're good people, and they do a lot for the community, but that doesn't always translate to shareholder value. I hope they survive and eventually thrive, but only time will tell.
Micheal , thanks for bringing up this topic . I always explain by asking two questions from the zombies with the '' smartphones ''
What is the difference between 0 degree Celsius and 1 degree Celsius .? Zombie answer --1 . I have to explain them that it is the difference between ice and water . This is called phase change -- solid to liquid .
What is the difference between 98.6 F and 100 F ? Zombie answer 1.4 . I have to explain that at the earlier you are ' fit ' and at the second you are 'sick' .
We here on OSB know that markets move not on facts but on narrative . So my question to all -- when does the oil traders tip over ? We here all know how debt has been used to cover up the fact of ''peak oil'' .
The phase change is too important -- once a female has puberty then there is no going back . If the markets will go into '' phase change '' narrative then all of a sudden it will be '' all is well'' to '' Fire '' . What then /? In my lifetime I have never witnessed a proper evacuation of a fire incident in a disco or a movie hall . More people die in stampedes in a stadium at the exit than actually die from the incident that caused the stampede in the first place .