The Energy Inaccuracy Administration seems to suggest the only current growth source for natural gas in the U.S. is associated gas from Permian tight oil wells. Indeed a number of sources show clearly "dry" unassociated gas from the Applachain Basin is declining as well productivity and EUR's decline. The two core areas in the APP Basin are actually quite small and already packed with long lateral wells. The Haynesville will get some more attention...at $6.

If you google Mr. AI Chat this is the answer one gets when asking about associated gas EUR's from Permian Basin tight oil wells: 2.2 BCF per well. I recently have seen some reallly good EUR work in the Permian Basin that implies as liquids productivity declines from pressure depletion, the gas portion of these EUR's is actually increasing in disproportionate terms to about 2.6 BCF per well. Oil is going down and but for rising GOR, associated gas prodution would also be going down.

Berman says 60% of the EUR's from 55,000 existing wells has already been recovered and 15.2 G BO of cummprod to date/55,000 wells = 276.4K BO per well, so the numbers sorta work. Permian Basin only.

So the future of feedstock for LNG, if its the Permian Basin, is going to take a lot more wells, tens of thousands of more wells. Where are they going to go and where is the money going to come from to drill them? If the production stream in the Permian eventually goes to 75% gas, 25% oil, whats the price of each component have to be to drill $11-12MM HZ wells?

Below $60 WTI the Permian Basin HZ play makes no money, or not enough money to pay down its $140 B of outstanding debt and then be able to retire its 55,000 wells and clean up its footprint. I have shown you elsewhere that the 4th largest producer in the Permian Basin HZ play has oil to gas ratios in its production stream of about 55:45%, yet gas and natural gas liquids only represented 11% of its revenue stream in 2024.

I don't think people are very dialed in to reality about gassy HZ shale oil wells turning into oily HZ shale gas wells and LNG exports from the Permian Basin. WaHa averaged 60 cents in 2024.

The amount of natural gas wasted in the Permian Basin over the past decade is staggering. Now people are looking to the Permian Basin to fullfill their dreams about LNG exports, making more royalty income, saving the dollar, keeping Russia at bay, borrowing more money for the sake of high paying jobs, protecting U.S debt?! Good grief.