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" Another possible factor (for slowing Permian production) is the specter of acreage depletion.  

We think the rumors of the demise of shale have been greatly exaggerated but we acknowledge that there is a growing concern that limited Tier 1 acreage has and will continue to result in lower average production rates for new wells. For instance, ExxonMobil recently indicated well interference and acreage consolidation as a concern and key rationale behind its just-closed acquisition of Permian giant Pioneer Natural Resources. As major producers consolidate and optimize their drilling programs, the production outlook has flattened out'"



I don't feel like I need to explain this chart from; its pretty obvious what has happened over the years to this particular operator in the Delaware Basin, operating in its core area, in its most productive bench. 

Its best wells were drilled early in the play on reasonable spacing and using rational reservoir management. 

Then in 2018 it picked up the pace, drilled more wells in its core area, likely with longer laterals and more sand and those wells had higher initial rates and steeper decline rates. This was the beginning of domestic violence (conflicts between parents and children) in US tight oil basins. Wells were drilled on much closer spacer. 

Then post COVID, in 2021, it abandoned long term reservoir management and protection of its remaining assets and started highgrading the snot out of its core, and its core bench, with longer laterals, more proppant, more water and gutting the hell out of its wells for cash flow. Look at the ensuing decline rates!

Which of the three data-sets to you believe will have the highest recovery rates of oil in place and the highest EUR's? 

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The materials provided on this site are for informational and educational purposes only and are not intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice.  I may make data related mistakes  occasionally; if you use my opinions about oil reserves or shale well economics for financial purposes, to buy or sell stocks, your nuts. Don't do that. If I have used a photograph incorrectly it was for educational purposes and I have done my best of to give credit where credit is due. My stories are all true, slightly embellished, perhaps, but true; I don't change names to protect the guilty. I am as accurate as possible about history and historical facts; I work very hard at that.All rights are reserved, whatever that means.  Don't blame me,  I didn't do it.   

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