In 2023 I think associated gas from tight oil wells in the Permian was something like 18 BCFPD. It's now pretty close to 24 BCFPD after 20 months of new wells, 35% of them over 12,000 feet in lateral length, with big IP360's because of more proppant per perforated foot, more perforated feet, etc. etc. But remember, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

Incorry's is another Canadian analytical group and here is a chart from them that suggests legacy tight oil wells making 18 BCFGPD would decline down to <6 BCFGPD in 3 years.

So, 80% of future associated gas production from the Permian will have to come from new tight oil wells. Tens of thousands of them.

Most of the Permian Basin HZ tight oil play is in, or near, bubble point and we all know what happens to GOR with solution gas mudstone starts to bubble out. It goes up.

But it does NOT keep going up, it declines just like oil, just at a slower pace. That's what the text books say:

But things never stay the same in the oilfield, past results are seldom indicative of future performance and now the rate of associated gas decline is increasing. Now most of all the cores, where 93% of oil and gas production comes from, are suffering from parent/child interference and "reservoir" degradation. Put another way, they are suffering from pressure depletion.

Elsewhere in this gas thread I've shown you that for the Permian to grow associated gas production by 1.3 BCFGPD for the next 5 or 6 years it has to first REPLACE 7.5 BCFGPD from legacy decline. I think that annualized legacy decline rate will now start to ramp up.

This associated gas hope from the Permian Basin has reached Defcon 4 on the absurdity level.

I know it's hard for many to believe, but associated gas depletes too. Here is a data set of early Delaware Basin associated gas and high GOR gas wells drilled from 2010 to 2015 carried forward to July 2025. For 2015 wells gas declined by 73% in 9 years.