I purposefully went back to 2021 associated gas production from the Permian Basin to show you what gas decline rates were going forward from the best tight oil wells drilled in the Permian, ever. This is realized production data from the TRRC, from Novi Labs, not bullshit. Nobody is making this up.

Since 2021, gas-to-oil ratios have gone way UP in the Permian, both sub-basins. That is leading to more associated gas production...but not necessarily higher associated gas EUR's, which I still place at no more than 2.5 BCF per Permian tight oil well in 2025, this from lots of realized production data.

The above Novi chart suggests, in fact, that associated gas from tight oil wells follows a similar decline pattern as oil, simply prolonged several more years. We know that GOR increases past bubble point, but not many seem to realize it does NOT produce forever in economic terms.

Above is an RBN (Canadian analysts) article suggesting that because Permian tight OIL producers will want to drill in higher initial GOR areas, and benches...associated gas production from the Permian will continue to rise and will meet, or exceed, LNG demand.

It is a poor analysis.

Who is going to drill $10MM HZ tight oil wells that do NOT breakeven with oil prices below $60 WTI, just for associate gas that nets $2 per MCF after costs? [1]

I've shown you cumprods. for associated gas from Permian oil wells do not exceed 2.5 BCF and therefore do not imply EUR's of more than 2.5 BCFG.

OK, so let's look at Permian Basin tight oil wells purposefully drilled in high GOR areas, like Culberson County, and Western Reeves County, and Irion County. These wells are classified as "gas wells." These are the wells that pundits want you to believe that the tight oil sector just needs to do to shift to gassier areas and benches, like the Wolfcamp D, to meet LNG feedstock demand. It's a piece of cake when you don't understand economics.

Above, on a normalized for lateral length basis, associated natural gas for Permian tight oil wells are getting worse !

So, go head on and drill a $10MM HZ well that makes 5 BCF of gas and 200,000 bbls, of crude, condensate of natural gas liquids and tell me how much money you make. Please! These analysts, like RBN, East Daily, and countless others, are just trying to keep the party going, so you will get confused, stay confused and want to buy their bullshit. Nobody at RBN would do that with their own money.

There are now $74 B of FSD's on the book for American LNG. Much of it based on associated gas from tight OIL wells. It will prove to be the 2nd biggest waste of money in American shale history.

The first was to drill the stuff anyway, for exports to foreign countries. Below costs.

[1]

incorrys.com

North American natural gas breakeven cost (also known as full cycle cost) by major basin and cost component in both the US and Canada.

Note in this analysis, from another Canadian company, that Permian Basin associated gas from tight oil wells takes at least $5 plus per MCF to breakeven.

There is now $74 billion dollars of expenditures on the books to increases LNG exports from the U.S., including, now, the North Slope of Alaska. The folks spending this money along the Texas Gulf Coast are counting on 9 BCFGPD more than the current 25 BCFGPD the Permian currently produces. They assume people will keep drilling oil wells that do nothing more than break even, for their associated gas, or that operators will drill $10MM wells for 5 BCF of gas reserves, all of which will be exported. Nothing declines, $60 oil is not a detriment, rising costs, no problem, AI, whatever...not a problem.

Ain't gonna happen.