A month or so ago Novi qualified remaining Tier 1/2 level drilling inventory in the Midland Basin by estimating the level of degradation in remaining rock due to parent/child interference. That is another term for drilling wells too close together and degradation is another term for pressure depletion... which is yet another term for depletion.

Nobody likes to use the term depletion because that means the party is coming to an end and nobody is going to let that happen, no matter what!

Anyway, it was clear to me after studying Novi's stuff there were between 4 and 5 years of Tier 1/2 level locations left in the Midland, at $70/$3.50.

I've since suggested that falling new well productivity, rapid decline rates of newer wells and increasing late-life terminal decline rates is leading to an ever-increasing "degradation" in the core of the basin. In other words, things are going south now kinda quickly. So, I think there is closer to 4 years of drilling left over there and Exxon and Diamondback are full of pinto beans. By the way, the price of oil is below $60.

Here is a chart from a 2023 study of remaining Wolfcamp B locations in the Midland Basin from Kimmeridge. This bench is just as popular as the Wolfcamp A and Lower Spraberry. Is shows that Tier 1 (and 2?) level locations are gone in 2029. That's essentially three years away. By the way, the price of oil is below $60.

The next round of Tiers 3 and 4 stuff out in goat pasture is going to cost more and make less crude oil.

Isn't it time we rethink the stupid, unfettered export of Permian tight oil to foreign countries, below costs? Or should we just go head on and run the whole table?

The future of U.S. hydrocarbons is not now; it's in the future. And it's sneaking up on us rapidly.