U.S. oil production was up in April, according to the EIA and some analysts are suggesting it is because of rising rig counts already. Remember, it takes 6-8 months from spud to first reported production data made to the public.

The only Basin we will see meaningful production growth in 2026 is from the Permian and that will not occur until EOY. The Permian is up only 4-5 rigs since March, two just last week. "Other" means other, like conventional wells, which some would likely not believe could be true. Conventional wells can turn actual production to the tanks much sooner than 6-8 months and at $80 dollar oil and much, much more profitable to drill that tight oil wells. This BH chart makes no distinction between vertical and HZ rigs.

Production is up in April, if true, likely because of a flurry of DUC completions.

There is nothing happening to suggest U.S. production will grow 500,000 BOPD in 2026. Half that. Maybe. Annualized decline of legacy production is increasing as longer laterals decline faster and pressure depletion sets in.

The best thing for America's long term energy future would be if the tight oil sector ignores Washington and tries to pay down debt instead of drilling wells for the sake of exports to foreign countries. That is really stoopid. Which means it will probably actually happen. 500K BO increases in 2026 would all be exported and diluted throughout the world meaning only a few cents relief per gallon for Americans.