Bone Springs and U-Turn Wells in the Delaware Basin

This is very cool GIF of Bone Springs development in the Delaware Basin from 2011 t0 2Q2020. In the five years since 2020 there has been an additional 7,899 Bone Springs wells drilled in the Basin thru 1Q2025 bringing the total to a little south of 13,000 well today. It is, in my opinion, over the entire correlative interval, including the 1st, 2nd. 3rd BS, an Avalon and Bone Springs "sand" interval, the most prolific formation in the Delaware Basin. The Permian is what it is today because of New Mexico, because of Lea and Eddy Counties in New Mexico, and because of the Bone Springs. There are numerous wells in one or more of these Bone Springs benches that are approaching over 1.5-2.0 MM BO of cummprod. to date, headed for 3 MM.

It's a different beast than Wolfcamp mudstone (shale), the Bone Spings; it was deposited in a time of rising and falling sea water, consists of lenticular sections of clean sandstone having 25 % by volume porosity, rabbled carbonates, sandy carbonates and shaley carbonates that crumble with stressed via a frac. The organic matter laid down during the depositional time frame is full of hydrocarbons and makes the Bone Springs both reservoir-like, but with self-generating resource beds immediately above and below porous layers of the formation itself. In the East, the deepest part of the Delaware Basin, the Bone Springs is actually over pressured adding to its productivity (EOG in Lea County). To the west when the old sea was transgressive (receding back and forth, deposition led to areas of turbulent, creek-like things (fans) that are unusually porous and very rich in organic material. If you encounter some of the turbidite fans you can make a awesome wells (Franklin Mountain).
While the rest of Permian Basin resource beds struggle to produce 8% of calculated oil in place along a HZ lateral (stimulated reservoir volume, or SRV), many of the Bone Springs benches, like 1 and 2, have recovery rates of 38-34%.
So, if you have no more room to drill long laterals, and only one section of land isolated between thousands of long laterals, you want to drill Bone Springs stuff under those sections because that is the good, juicy stuff. How do you do that? With a U-turn well. A surface location generally off the section drills a 5,000 foot lateral up one side of the section, turns a wide curve then drills another 5,000 foot lateral down the other side of the section.

There is a good reason that most of the OK (none are good enough @ $63 WTI/ negative WaHa to pay back costs) U-turn wells drilled in the Permian Basin are in northern Reeves, Loving and Eddy County, New Mexico.
It's because of the Bone Springs. The ones drilled over the in the Midland Basin core, suck.

Tight oil cheerleaders are doing handstands and bowling ball holds over U-turns, like Doomberg and its followers, above, but these wells are really not very cost effective to drill and because much of the long sweeping turn (many torque and drag problems) before the 2nd leg (much of which cannot even be perforated or frac'ed) they are a bitch to produce, particularly once on artificial lift. Remember, the perforated stages at the toe of U-turn well have to have greater pressure drop than those at the heel or they are not going to produce at the same rates. Thats just one problem. The next three problems, in order of severity, are a.) water, b.) water and c.) more water.
At <$63 a $10MM U-turn well still has to make 600K BO to reach payout. They DO solve a "problem," however, and that problem has to do with running out of contiguous acreage that will allow one to drill a liner 10,12, 13K foot lateral from one surface location. If there were a lot of drillable locations like that left in the Permian, why in God's name would you want to drill one that looks like a horseshoe?
The risk factors in drilling these wells more than doubles.

Delaware Bone Springs
Let's look at how good this Bone Springs stuff is in the Delaware, starting with this map, above. We could look at cummprods. to date for all Avalon/BS wells but that is no fun so instead let's look at Novi's estimate of 30-year EUR's based on its AI/machine learning shit.
But let's be clear, I don't buy into 30-year EUR's; most of these wells below $75 WTI will be goners in 15-18 years, mostly because they will reach economic limits at 20-15 BOPD due to produced water costs. So even though I am a dumbass roughneck from Flatonia I don't necessarily agree with machines. Me and Novi don't see eye to eye on well economics, or EURs. It's funky idea of well economics (i.e., 2-year payouts and 25% ROIs at $50 oil IS why it gets these kinds of EURs carried out to 30 years. In real life it's not even close to reality. If prices go to $200 a barrel for oil, and at least that for produced water, 50-year EURs are a possibility.
If, however, the machine pukes out big EURs at some point in the well profile the parameters were something the machine liked. All those red and orange laterals in Lea, Eddy, Reeves and Loving Counties are going to be good wells in the plus 600-700K BO range. This is a good map showing where the core of the Delaware Basin is...the western part of Lea County. This is where EOG use to make its living but has now drilled itself into oblivion.
The first image is really just a pretty map.
Here in this cumulative oil v. time chart, we can see the meat. Most of these wells appear to be a cummprod. path of 600-700,000 some odd BO by year 16-17, if they can hold together than long. Or, what I should say, as long as Texas allows New Mexico to dispose of most of its produced water in Texas. When this is over those marginal wells will be goners. I think that over half of the HZ well bores already drilled in the Delaware Basin produce less than 30 BOPD, and 150 BWPD, and have terminal decline rates of 12+% every year. I'll try and find the chart on that. The New Mexico Bone Springs play is Water World.
And in this chart, we can the two big mama-jama benches in the Avalon/Bone Springs interval are the 2nd and 3rd Bone Springs:
So, clearly, if you were down to no acreage to drill in the Delaware Basin you'd want to find sections in Bone Springs core and drill BS 2 and 3 benches.
Like if you were Chevron, or Oxy (Anadarko) with all this checkerboarded acreage you bought because of the T&PR.