HIH

That was a wonderful and enlightening article. Instead of indoctrinating kids in public schools on social issues, we should be teaching reality again. That article screams reality.

Having earned a BS in mechanical engineering, I took classes that revealed both laws and truths in physics, statics and dynamics; some that hit and stuck to this day. In a kinematics class early on, the concept of degrees of freedoms in linkages made such an indelible impression. One can readily see and control two linked members but three takes the matter to a much higher level. Beyond three members the complexity is stunning. The reality is that simple is better yet we strive to make almost everything more complex often to no 'real' benefit. Vehicles are both an excellent example and relatable to most everyone; if not in the present, then very soon indeed.

It would be easy to write a screed just on the replacement of simple and reliable manual transmissions in cars and trucks with complex and very expensive (to purchase and to repair) automatic transmissions. The latter, for all of their conveniences, consume near 1 mpg more gasoline than the former, all the while the manufacturers and consumers produce or demand more fuel efficient vehicles. How does that tradeoff make any sense in a man made climate panic world?

The use of oil and gas in transportation is a dynamic relationship. The future of one will very much shape the future of the other. That is similar to complex EVs and the materials from which they are made. Whether the supply of the energy/materials or the sustainability of the vehicles forces the dynamic to fail is yet to be seen.

The end of examples of the complexity argument lies at the end of one's imagination. The overarching question is why?

A great yet fundamental example of imposed complexity is why is new math necessary and a forced/required replacement to old math? Why is it a failure to simply know the multiplications tables? There are only 10 digits so how simple could it be to just know that 9 x 7 = 63 instead of having to prove through several steps that 63 is the answer? If a kid just knows the answer is 63 they are deemed not knowing. On what planet does the replacement of knowledge with the imposition or demand of process (complexity) have any logical basis or benefit?

Of course, AI fixes everything; everything. /s

George,

In my humble opinion, the last projected numbers that appear logical are 9, 10 and 11 of 2024, and that is even an epic stretch. After that, based on the data provided, the projections are pie in the sky.

The variables in play are far removed from simple supply and demand so that supply increases cannot be modeled. Even decline rates, which should be more facts based, are subject to significant intangibles.

Spring 2020 tells all.

I see this trend with business as usual, without the Permian shoe to drop off. If the shoe drops off all bets are on.

The next few months will reveal much in our world.

Wireline companies are already pushed to lower their price. Neighbor behind me owns part of a wireline outfit. He put his house on the market 2 weeks ago.

It's not just weirdliners getting knee capped. Coil is bidding very hard too. Hoping this blows over fast after the election

OK. I get it. And I agree with you. Thank you.

Thank you. I figured you'd say it to my face if my thoughts didn't make sense. I am getting long in the tooth and sometimes talk to myself--which is usually when I go off the rails, not in public. I love geology but for some reason I laugh every time I say updip, so I had to do something else. I enjoy being here and will try to not write in disappearing ink the next time. I know about that one man stuff, too. Try as hard as I might I couldn't remember what I wrote. I'm just glad I didn't show my ass in public (again)!

Honestly, I hate computers, don't know anything about them and the host of this site, Wix, is prone to big time brain farts. Again, I am sorry. I did everything I could to see if there was a problem and I did not see it. Please keep posting.

On that last line; been there, done that, will likely repeat.

One of the first and most liberating things I learned on a drilling rig way back when was that if you haven't messed up anything, then you haven't done anything. Big club and we're all in it.

I''ve heard the same thing about Endeavor employees, all of whom I am told, would have gone to battle for their boss. FANG I could care less about. Its principles or its finances. It's royalty buying subsidary borders on goose doo doo.

There are articles all the time (just recently with Slav and OP.com) that imply M&A's are measure of strength in the shale oil patch, of reslience and hope for the future. In reality they are job killers and D&C cost raisers and OPEX killers. Always have been. I thought we cared about jobs in America. Aren't jobs one of the reasons we export 45% of all shale oil produced in America?

Ten cents an MCF. My grandfather got that in the 1930's. No way FANG realized $79 at the WH in June. I'll bet the ranch on that. If I used these production price numbers and ran the economics on $7.5MM, 3 mile laterals it claims (no way), nobody would believe me. It sucks. This is an outfit that will never pay its debt off.

Most enlightening....only 58% crude and/or condensate. Wow. Tell me Martin, Howard and Glascock Counties, all of which are ALSO thought of as Saudi America, aren't gassing out just like Midland County.

Thank you for commenting.

Hi Mike.

Frac spreads are down to 222 as of last week, the lowest in near 3 1/2 years.

Is the drop highly influenced by the longer lateral. fewer rigs, bigger fracs trifecta? Is it related to the consistent drop in rigs drilling for gas?

Just curious as I try to sort out the patch a bit.

I am guessing Robert but I think frac spreads are sort of a non issue now and hard to gain insight from. You nailed the biggest reason for that, I believe, is all this simufrac hoopla. The same spread stays on the same pad for months. I got some great insight last week from an Ensign tool pusher on how long it takes to drill 3 mile laterals, how many they like to have ready before the start frac'ing them three at a time, problems with 3 mile lateral hole stability, wandering out of zone, shoving casing down, etc. etc. It made me very happy to the simple bumpkin I am.

There ARE fewer wells getting completed, we just haven't seen the production drop from that yet. I think rig counts are still what to watch. I looked at the TRRC permit query for one primo county in the Midland Basin, 50% of the wells being drilled are pluse 23K TMD wells and 80% of those long lateral wells were allocation wells, or unleased acreaged joined with leased acreage in a unit without the consent of the mineral owner/Lessor. Thats an indication of how crowded it is out there and that the longer lateral thing is not going to last a whole lot longer. There is just no room, not in the cores.

Thanks Mike.

Our old Bakken 3K laterals were up, down and all around (we didn't drill them we bought them) so I cannot fathom what a 15K lateral looks like in 3D; better steering tech notwithstanding.

So that right there makes this allocation crap all the more insane. Who is draining who or whom and from where? That makes the East Texas Field lease line thievery look like a penny ante game.

Maybe or hopefully the TRRC will approach the Barnett development according to Hoyle and not allow the waste and correlative rights violations to occur at any significant level.

As to being a simple bumpkin, I agree whole heartedly. Might have a shot at some 800 ft stuff soon. If so, I might have to get one of my cable tool rigs out of mothballs and be a real bumpkin drilling straight holes and I mean straight!

Have a great weekend.

Hey Mike.

They hit a small outfit and it'll go kinetic at some point. Shouldn't be this way but as I use'd to say so often, "if you walk on the freeway it's not if but when you get hit".

The PB is a jewelry store without guards overnight when it comes to organized gangs. Can you imagine spotting a work string in the evening before a morning job? Might consider a dry watch with the sheriff on speed dial.