Goehring & Rozencwajg have been beating the drums almost as long as Mike about the realities of the shale industry. Their commentary from 1st quarter 2025 repeats their previous points about how geology "trumps" technology in the oil patch, and adds data that shows oil demand is actually higher than most of the sources we see in the mainstream energy media are indicating. That definitely goes a long way toward explaining why inventories seem so tight when production seems too high.

I've been saying that we're in for a Big Supply Surprise sooner than many people think, which will, once again, push prices past the levels that governments work so hard to maintain. These spikes aren't war driven, they're what happens when politicians just don't want to hear, much less consider, any scenario that challenges the message of the moment. Our attempts to push natural gas as the logical replacement for oil are well meaning, but ignore the reality that this lower carbon hydrocarbon fuel doesn't generate as much energy. As an accountant, I had to balance the accounts somehow, and if we're short supply, someone doesn't get their fair share. In a market driven world where only price matters, prices will decide who does. We're in for a war between our desire to have AI do all our thinking, and our desire to have heat in the winter, sooner than we think.