Can we torture the Howard County data a bit more? As President Obama used to say, and this is some time ago now, yes we can. First of all the volumes:

Then the gas to oil ratio in energy equivalent terms:

Howard County gas production has remained flat as oil production tipped over into its death dive. What is interesting is that the gas to oil ratio had a change in trend in July 2023. This is likely due to a county-wide pressure drop below the bubble point, if that is possible. Eventually gas production will follow oil into a death dive; the plateau will be short-lived. Jean Laherrere, a 93 year old French oilman, provides a big picture view:

Others have a different perspective on the US natural gas production outlook, in particular the ones fixing to double the country's LNG production:

Mr Archibald,
Thank you so much for this. These charts make sense and I agree this could be an outstanding predictive tool.
I suppose this methodology could tell you quite a bit about specific operators in a county or trend. If so they would probably pay you to go away!
This is a 2019 article highlighing the impact of parent/child relationships in the Midland Basin, particularly Howard County. Truthfully, if you read between the lines this article is more about frac hits, or bashing, that can occur when drilling wells too close together.
If you think this has gotten better since 2019, it hasn't. Its gotten worse. And because companies like Diamondback can't afford to move off into Tier 3/4 flanks, they continue to highgrade core areas on <600 foot spacing. Wells bash each other horizontally and vertically.
I wonder about this vertical communication. I see entire blocks of acreage with old, circ. 1980 vertical Spraberry wells not being drilled with HZ Wolfcamp wells. Look at TRRC GIS maps. After 10 years, why not? Some of it is pressure depletion and problems drilling wells thru the radius... I just wonder why when there is room to drill 14,000 foot laterals under these vertical wells, why they are not.
I watched HZ chalk wells get drilled on 2000 foot spacing, underbalanced, with water, and rotating heads, and a half mile away a well would go to 100% water overnight, and never recover.
Thanks for these charts, Mr. Archibald. Certainly adds some perspective
I appreciate you posting this information here on oilystuff, Mr. Archibald.
I would only consider one quarter of the productive limits of Howard County to be Tier 1/2 level Lower Spraberry/Wolfcamp A/B, the rest Tier 3/4 flank stuff and if so, whats happeneing there an indication of how little the Permian will be able to rely on 3/4 quality acreage to hold a plateau.
A lot of these core counties, or partial counties, in the Midland Basin are saturated with wells drilled on <600 foot spacing and past the bubble point threashold. So yes, I believe it is possible to use GOR county wide as a diagnotic tool. Midland County is enjoying a brief reprieve but only from Exxon's super long lateral, party, soon to come to an end. So in looking at your Martin County GOR data we should see C+C there begin to fall, similar to Howard, I should think. FANG, we have been told, has released almost all Endeavor rigs, a function of poor economics, IMO, and increasing spacing, in looks to me like via TRRC permits. When half of the production stream from a well is worth less than 30 cents an MCF after all costs, its tough to make a living.
The Midland Basin will have a hard time in the near future, much harder than people believe and predict. What's left we are going to drain as fast as available CAPEX will allow. Makes perfect sense, uh? 😎
Each county will have its own fate with respect to oil production and tipping over into decline. There is a message in the Howard County GOR line:
The two sub-parallel red lines form an ascending wedge. When the wedge breaks its upper bound, the GOR takes off. That was the inflection point in the GOR rate of climb and also oil production tipping over into steel decline. What do other counties show?
Midland County is much the same.
As is Martin County.
Upton County has been in the same sort of ascending wedge but dribbled out of it.
No trend yet in Loving County.
Karnes County is still in is flat wedge.
And Reeves County has a clear break up on GOR with gas production remaing flat while oil production fell 100,000 BOPD. Howard County was the first out the gate in terms of tipping over into decline, being six months ahead of Midland. A few others joined them in May 2024. I think we have a new predictive tool. To quote Private Hudson in the movie Aliens, when a county breaks up from its GOR ascending wedge, it's 'Game over, man. Gave over!'