
Howard County is textbook quality.

In the last two months Howard County gas production has also gone into steep decline. The lag was 16 months behind oil production.

Midland County has also broken trend. Midland average production depth is about 10,500' while Howard County is perhaps 8,000.

The divergence between Midland County oil production and gas production confirms that the reservoir is below the bubble point and so oil production decline has begun.

Howard County has been declining at 40% per annum. If Midland County's decline is at 30% per annum, it will amount to 185,000 BOPD.

Martin County has also broken uptrend. As with Midland County, this was in May 2024.

As with Midland, the divergence between the oil and gas production profiles confirms that this is bubble point-driven.

Applying a 30% decline rate to Martin County results in a decline of 190,000 BOPD over the next year. These three counties, Howard, Midland and Martin, are good for a half million barrel per day decline in production rate by the end of 2025. Other counties include:

Karnes County

Reeves County

President Trump has undertaken to increase US oil production by three million barrels per day. That is a heroic undertaking given that he is facing a headwind of a half million barrel per day decline from three counties in Texas alone.
My advice to the President is to start talking about a plutonium breeder reactor rollout combined with synthetic fuel production by applying the Bergius process to the country’s coal reserves. Energy for the electrolysis to produce the necessary hydrogen for the Bergius plants would come from the nuclear reactors. Everyone would be happy in that there would be nuclear, hydrogen and coal all in the one solution.
The President’s pick for Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, is particularly promising in that he is invested in a plutonium breeder reactor startup called Oklo. This suggests that he has a complete understanding of what is needed.
Great charts! Thanks for sharing!